MLB Fantasy Forecaster Week 3

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Fantasy Forecaster: Week 3

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

On tap: Expect a heightened level of intensity in Los Angeles this week, as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres Monday through Wednesday, only four days after a Zack Greinke-Carlos Quentin hit by pitch spawned a bench-clearing brawl between the two teams that resulted in a fractured collarbone for Greinke and an eight-game suspension for Quentin (which he is currently appealing, though the San Diego Union-Tribune reports either his appeal might be heard, or he might drop it, before the series' start). Greinke's rotation spot was due up in the middle game (Tuesday), but the Dodgers will have their ace on the mound in the rubber match (Wednesday).
This is a surprisingly poor week for two-start pitchers. Only one of our preseason top 20 starting pitchers is scheduled to work twice -- Cliff Lee (@CIN, STL) -- and only seven of our top 50 get two assignments apiece. Even worse: On April 12, Forecaster's original publish date, eight of those top 50 were scheduled for two starts; rainouts and rotation shuffling dropped one of those top 50 out of two-start status. Many fourth and fifth starters are the ones making two turns, expanding the list of "no-thank-you options" and forcing fantasy owners to be pickier with their one-start pitchers. You've heard this before, but I'll say it again: This is a quality, not quantity, week.


Lee's Great American Ball Park assignment (that's on Monday) leads a list of hot-starting pitchers facing challenging matchups; Justin Masterson (BOS, Wednesday) and Jeff Samardzija (TEX, Thursday) are the others. This might be a telling week for all three regarding their 2013 full-season outlooks, and as you'll see below, all are ranked within "start 'em" territory based solely on their talent. But Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game, Masterson will be facing his drafting team, which ranked eighth in runs scored in 2012, and Samardzija will be facing the still-potent Texas Rangers.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
ESPN lineup deadlines | Interleague impact | Projected starting pitchers
Pitching scuttlebutt | Week 3 pitcher rankings | Pitching advantages
Hitting ratings | Hitting advantages
[h=3]ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines[/h]The annual Boston Red Sox Patriots Day game -- that a traditional 11 a.m. ET start -- is scheduled for Monday, the finale of a four-game series versus the Tampa Bay Rays. That pushes up lineup deadlines in leagues with daily transactions, and it represents one of three weekdays in which there are day games -- Wednesday (Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves, at 12:10 p.m. ET) and Thursday (San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, at 1:10 p.m. ET) are the others.
[h=3]Interleague impact[/h]This week's interleague series:
• Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees (3 games, Tuesday-Thursday)
• Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves (2 games, Tuesday-Wednesday)
• Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs (3 games, Tuesday-Thursday)
• Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
Though there are four interleague series this week, the most nightmarish of the four (for fantasy planning purposes) is the Royals-Braves two-gamer. The Royals recently showed us their plans for games in National League parks, where they'll lack the designated hitter: They gave Billy Butler the two starts at first base in which a left-handed starter was on the mound, and Eric Hosmer the one against a righty starter. As the Braves will start one of each, we might be looking at both Butler and Hosmer getting four starts apiece, in a week where four other American League teams will play seven games and the remaining nine teams will play six games.


The Rangers, meanwhile, will be forced into a choice between Mitch Moreland, their usual first baseman, and Lance Berkman, their DH, at first base during their three games at Wrigley Field. Considering Berkman's age, injury history, .176/.351/.270 triple-slash line in 24 games at Wrigley the past five seasons (2008-12) and the fact that a left-hander (Travis Wood) is scheduled to start Tuesday, he'll probably sit most of the series.
The Diamondbacks benefit from the addition of the DH at an American League park, as it grants them the opportunity to stash Jason Kubel, a mediocre defender, there. That could free up room for Eric Hinske, Alfredo Marte or Eric Chavez (with Martin Prado shifting to left field in that event). As for the Dodgers, the DH affords them the chance to give additional at-bats to Luis Cruz, Jerry Hairston Jr. and/or Nick Punto.
Among individual pitching matchups, keep in mind that Jason Hammel, the Orioles' scheduled Friday starter, was 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his four interleague starts in 2012, all of which came against teams that ranked among the upper half of the National League in runs scored.
[h=3]Projected starting pitchers[/h]The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.
<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<CENTER>Team </CENTER><CENTER>Mon
4/15 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Tue
4/16 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Wed
4/17 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Thu
4/18 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Fri
4/19 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Sat
4/20 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Sun
4/21 </CENTER>
bal.gif
TB
Arrieta
(RHP)
P: 4
TB
Tillman
(RHP)
P: 5
TB
Gonzalez
(RHP)
P: 9
LAD
Hammel
(RHP)
P: 7
LAD
Chen
(LHP)
P: 7
LAD
Arrieta
(RHP)
P: 4
bos.gif
TB
Dempster
(RHP)
P: 7
@CLE
Doubront
(LHP)
P: 2
@CLE
Aceves
(RHP)
P: 6
@CLE
Lester
(LHP)
P: 9
KC
Buchholz
(RHP)
P: 8
KC
Dempster
(RHP)
P: 5
KC
Doubront
(LHP)
P: 2
chw.gif
@TOR
Floyd
(RHP)
P: 6
@TOR
Axelrod
(RHP)
P: 4
@TOR
Quintana
(LHP)
P: 5
@TOR
Sale
(LHP)
P: 8
MIN
Peavy
(RHP)
P: 8
MIN
Floyd
(RHP)
P: 6
MIN
Axelrod
(RHP)
P: 5
cle.gif
BOS
Jimenez
(RHP)
P: 6
BOS
Masterson
(RHP)
P: 8
BOS
McAllister
(RHP)
P: 7
@HOU
Myers
(RHP)
P: 5
@HOU
TBD

P: 1
@HOU
Jimenez
(RHP)
P: 7
det.gif
@SEA
Fister
(RHP)
P: 10
@SEA
Scherzer
(RHP)
P: 7
@SEA
Verlander
(RHP)
P: 10
@LAA
Sanchez
(RHP)
P: 6
@LAA
Porcello
(RHP)
P: 2
@LAA
Fister
(RHP)
P: 7
hou.gif
@OAK
Bedard
(LHP)
P: 8
@OAK
Peacock
(RHP)
P: 5
@OAK
Norris
(RHP)
P: 6
CLE
Harrell
(RHP)
P: 4
CLE
Humber
(RHP)
P: 8
CLE
Bedard
(LHP)
P: 9
kan.gif
@ATL
Guthrie
(RHP)
P: 4
@ATL
Davis
(RHP)
P: 5
@BOS
Shields
(RHP)
P: 7
@BOS
Santana
(RHP)
P: 5
@BOS
Guthrie
(RHP)
P: 4
laa.gif
@MIN
Blanton
(RHP)
P: 2
@MIN
Vargas
(LHP)
P: 6
@MIN
Hanson
(RHP)
P: 6
DET
Richards
(RHP)
P: 5
DET
Wilson
(LHP)
P: 9
DET
Blanton
(RHP)
P: 1
min.gif
LAA
Correia
(RHP)
P: 4
LAA
Pelfrey
(RHP)
P: 3
LAA
Worley
(RHP)
P: 3
@CWS
Diamond
(LHP)
P: 3
@CWS
Correia
(RHP)
P: 4
@CWS
Pelfrey
(RHP)
P: 3
nyy.gif
ARI
Pettitte
(LHP)
P: 8
ARI
Nova
(RHP)
P: 3
ARI
Sabathia
(LHP)
P: 8
@TOR
Hughes
(RHP)
P: 3
@TOR
Kuroda
(RHP)
P: 7
@TOR
Pettitte
(LHP)
P: 8
oak.gif
HOU
Milone
(LHP)
P: 7
HOU
Griffin
(RHP)
P: 10
HOU
Colon
(RHP)
P: 8
@TB
Anderson
(LHP)
P: 9
@TB
Parker
(RHP)
P: 7
@TB
Milone
(LHP)
P: 6
sea.gif
DET
Harang
(RHP)
P: 4
DET
Hernandez
(RHP)
P: 10
DET
Iwakuma
(RHP)
P: 10
@TEX
Saunders
(LHP)
P: 2
@TEX
Maurer
(RHP)
P: 1
@TEX
Harang
(RHP)
P: 2
tam.gif
@BOS
Hellickson
(RHP)
P: 6
@BAL
Hernandez
(RHP)
P: 4
@BAL
Moore
(LHP)
P: 9
@BAL
Price
(LHP)
P: 8
OAK
Cobb
(RHP)
P: 9
OAK
Hellickson
(RHP)
P: 7
OAK
Hernandez
(RHP)
P: 5
tex.gif
@CHC
Holland
(LHP)
P: 8
@CHC
Grimm
(RHP)
P: 4
@CHC
Ogando
(RHP)
P: 10
SEA
Darvish
(RHP)
P: 10
SEA
Tepesch
(RHP)
P: 5
SEA
Holland
(LHP)
P: 8
tor.gif
CWS
Buehrle
(LHP)
P: 4
CWS
Johnson
(RHP)
P: 9
CWS
Happ
(LHP)
P: 4
CWS
Dickey
(RHP)
P: 7
NYY
Morrow
(RHP)
P: 5
NYY
Buehrle
(LHP)
P: 3
NYY
Johnson
(RHP)
P: 8
ari.gif
@NYY
McCarthy
(RHP)
P: 5
@NYY
Miley
(LHP)
P: 5
@NYY
Corbin
(LHP)
P: 3
@COL
Kennedy
(RHP)
P: 5
@COL
Cahill
(RHP)
P: 5
@COL
McCarthy
(RHP)
P: 4
atl.gif
KC
Medlen
(RHP)
P: 10
KC
Minor
(LHP)
P: 6
@PIT
Teheran
(RHP)
P: 4
@PIT
Hudson
(RHP)
P: 10
@PIT
Maholm
(LHP)
P: 7
@PIT
Medlen
(RHP)
P: 10
chc.gif
TEX
Wood
(LHP)
P: 6
TEX
Villnueva
(RHP)
P: 6
TEX
Samardzija
(RHP)
P: 8
@MIL
Jackson
(RHP)
P: 5
@MIL
Feldman
(RHP)
P: 2
@MIL
Wood
(LHP)
P: 6
cin.gif
PHI
Arroyo
(RHP)
P: 5
PHI
Bailey
(RHP)
P: 6
PHI
Leake
(RHP)
P: 3
MIA
Cueto
(RHP)
P: 10
MIA
Latos
(RHP)
P: 10
MIA
Arroyo
(RHP)
P: 6
MIA
Bailey
(RHP)
P: 7
col.gif
NYM
Nicasio
(RHP)
P: 3
NYM
Francis
(LHP)
P: 2
NYM
Garland
(RHP)
P: 7
NYM
Chacin
(RHP)
P: 8
ARI
DeLaRosa
(LHP)
P: 3
ARI
Nicasio
(RHP)
P: 2
ARI
Francis
(LHP)
P: 1
lad.gif
SD
Billingsley
(RHP)
P: 8
SD
Capuano
(LHP)
P: 6
SD
Kershaw
(LHP)
P: 10
@BAL
Ryu
(LHP)
P: 7
@BAL
Beckett
(RHP)
P: 5
@BAL
Billingsley
(RHP)
P: 6
mia.gif
WSH
LeBlanc
(LHP)
P: 3
WSH
Sanabia
(RHP)
P: 3
WSH
Nolasco
(RHP)
P: 4
@CIN
Fernandez
(RHP)
P: 5
@CIN
Slowey
(RHP)
P: 3
@CIN
LeBlanc
(LHP)
P: 3
@CIN
Sanabia
(RHP)
P: 3
mil.gif
SF
Peralta
(RHP)
P: 7
SF
Fiers
(RHP)
P: 5
SF
Lohse
(RHP)
P: 7
CHC
Gallardo
(RHP)
P: 8
CHC
Estrada
(RHP)
P: 7
CHC
Peralta
(RHP)
P: 8
nym.gif
@COL
Gee
(RHP)
P: 3
@COL
Laffey
(LHP)
P: 1
@COL
Hefner
(RHP)
P: 1
@COL
Niese
(LHP)
P: 4
WSH
Harvey
(RHP)
P: 10
WSH
Gee
(RHP)
P: 4
WSH
Laffey
(LHP)
P: 2
phi.gif
@CIN
Lee
(LHP)
P: 10
@CIN
Kendrick
(RHP)
P: 3
@CIN
Lannan
(LHP)
P: 6
STL
Hamels
(LHP)
P: 7
STL
Halladay
(RHP)
P: 8
STL
Lee
(LHP)
P: 10
STL
Kendrick
(RHP)
P: 3
pit.gif
STL
McDonald
(RHP)
P: 6
STL
Sanchez
(LHP)
P: 3
STL
Burnett
(RHP)
P: 4
ATL
Locke
(LHP)
P: 3
ATL
Rodriguez
(LHP)
P: 8
ATL
McDonald
(RHP)
P: 7
ATL
Sanchez
(LHP)
P: 4
stl.gif
@PIT
Lynn
(RHP)
P: 8
@PIT
Westbrook
(RHP)
P: 7
@PIT
Miller
(RHP)
P: 10
@PHI
Wainwright
(RHP)
P: 9
@PHI
Garcia
(LHP)
P: 8
@PHI
Lynn
(RHP)
P: 7
@PHI
Westbrook
(RHP)
P: 6
sdg.gif
@LAD
Stults
(LHP)
P: 7
@LAD
Marquis
(RHP)
P: 2
@LAD
Ross
(RHP)
P: 5
@SF
Volquez
(RHP)
P: 3
@SF
Richard
(LHP)
P: 4
@SF
Stults
(LHP)
P: 6
sfo.gif
@MIL
Zito
(LHP)
P: 5
@MIL
Vogelsong
(RHP)
P: 7
@MIL
Cain
(RHP)
P: 9
SD
Bumgarner
(LHP)
P: 10
SD
Lincecum
(RHP)
P: 8
SD
Zito
(LHP)
P: 7
was.gif
@MIA
Zimmrmnn
(RHP)
P: 9
@MIA
Haren
(RHP)
P: 6
@MIA
Detwiler
(LHP)
P: 9
@NYM
Strasburg
(RHP)
P: 10
@NYM
Gonzalez
(LHP)
P: 10
@NYM
Zimmrmnn
(RHP)
P: 8

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
P: The starting pitcher's matchup rating, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.

[h=3]Pitching scuttlebutt[/h]• Ubaldo Jimenez was skipped in the Cleveland Indians' rotation due to their April 10-11 rainouts, but he's scheduled to return to action Tuesday. With Corey Kluber recently demoted, the Indians' most likely Saturday starter appears to be rehabbing Scott Kazmir.
• Though he was not needed in relief on April 13 despite being made available for it, Rick Porcello is still scheduled to be skipped in the Detroit Tigers' rotation this time around, making him a one-start pitcher in Week 3 (@LAA, Saturday).
• The most recent report from the Kansas City Royals had them skipping fifth starter Luis Mendoza's turn in the rotation this week due to Monday and Thursday off days. If Mendoza does pitch Friday or Saturday, Jeremy Guthrie would get only one turn.
• The Los Angeles Angels could use Thursday's off day to skip fifth starter Garrett Richards, in which case Jason Vargas would get two starts in Week 3.
• The Minnesota Twins' and New York Mets' rotation changes were announced shortly after word of their April 14 postponement broke. The most notable development: Pedro Hernandez, the Twins' fifth starter, won't start again until April 22.
• The New York Yankees have shuffled their rotation multiple times in the past two days due to rainouts and an injury to Andy Pettitte (back spasms), and it is unclear whether Pettitte will now pitch Tuesday or Wednesday, an important distinction in the two-start schedule. Ivan Nova would replace Pettitte on Tuesday if the latter is unable to go.
• Aaron Harang has replaced Blake Beavan in the Seattle Mariners' rotation and will start Tuesday's game.
• Scott Feldman (back) will have his rotation spot skipped on Wednesday, and it is unclear whether he'll be ready to pitch on Saturday, the next time the Chicago Cubs need a fifth starter.
• It is unclear whether Johnny Cueto will be able to make his scheduled Thursday start. If he's unable to go, the Cincinnati Reds might call up Tony Cingrani for the assignment.
[h=3]• Paul Maholm returns to PNC Park, where on Saturday he'll face his former Pittsburgh Pirates mates. He had two quality starts, a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his three games there as a visitor in 2012, and he's one of the hottest pickups in fantasy thanks to a strong spring and solid first two regular-season weeks.
• Of all the Coors Field visitors this week, have little fear of Ian Kennedy's matchup. As a member of the National League West, he's one of the visitors most familiar with Coors, and his three quality starts, 3.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in five career games in Denver show that he has been reasonably successful there historically.
• Clayton Kershaw is a no-brainer fantasy play, but don't underestimate the strength of his matchup against the San Diego Padres. He has eight wins, 11 quality starts, a 2.28 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 17 career starts against them, and as stated earlier, the Dodgers will be plenty motivated to make a statement in this rematch. That also applies to Monday starter Chad Billingsley, who has eight wins, 10 quality starts, a 2.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 14 starts against the Padres the past four seasons combined. Make sure Billingsley is also in your active lineup.
• Marco Estrada has already defeated the Chicago Cubs once this season (April 8), and between last season and this campaign, he's 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five games (four starts) against them.
• Among deeper sleepers for Week 3: A.J. Griffin and Bartolo Colon (Tuesday and Wednesday, HOU) are 3-for-3 combined in quality starts and will face a weak Houston Astros lineup; Ross Detwiler (Wednesday, @MIA) had a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his three starts versus the Miami Marlins last season (2.89 ERA if you count his two-inning relief stint of May 30); Jhoulys Chacin (Thursday, NYM) has kicked off his 2013 with back-to-back quality starts and has limited current New York Mets to combined .212/.270/.212 lifetime rates; and Nick Tepesch (Saturday, SEA) had a strong big league debut and will face a Seattle Mariners team that isn't much more potent offensively than the Tampa Bay Rays.
• Incidentally, Ubaldo Jimenez (Sunday, @HOU) has limited current Houston Astros to combined .108/.233/.108 lifetime rates, and that's one matchup that might actually rest in his favor. That said, he's for only those owners who can pick and choose from his two starts in leagues with daily transactions; his Tuesday game against the Red Sox is a matchup to avoid.
<H3>Hitting ratings</H3>The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.
<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<CENTER>Team </CENTER><CENTER>Games </CENTER><CENTER>Overall
Rating </CENTER>
<CENTER>Mon
4/15 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Tue
4/16 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Wed
4/17 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Thu
4/18 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Fri
4/19 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Sat
4/20 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Sun
4/21 </CENTER>
bal.gif
6 total
6 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 3
L: 4
R: 5
S: 5
TB
H: 7
L: 8
R: 5
S: 6
TB
H: 2
L: 4
R: 3
S: 6
TB
H: 3
L: 1
R: 5
S: 5
LAD
H: 4
L: 1
R: 7
S: 3
LAD
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 5
LAD
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 3
bos.gif
7 total
4 home
0 vs. L
7 vs. R
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 8
TB
H: 5
L: 8
R: 2
S: 5
@CLE
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 7
@CLE
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 6
@CLE
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 7
KC
H: 4
L: 3
R: 7
S: 3
KC
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 4
KC
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 2
chw.gif
7 total
3 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 7
L: 7
R: 9
S: 8
@TOR
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 3
@TOR
H: 2
L: 3
R: 2
S: 5
@TOR
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 4
@TOR
H: 3
L: 4
R: 4
S: 4
MIN
H: 8
L: 8
R: 7
S: 7
MIN
H: 7
L: 5
R: 9
S: 6
MIN
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 7
cle.gif
6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 9
BOS
H: 9
L: 7
R: 9
S: 6
BOS
H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 6
BOS
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 6
@HOU
H: 7
L: 9
R: 5
S: 7
@HOU
H: 4
L: 7
R: 1
S: 8
@HOU
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 7
det.gif
6 total
0 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 2
L: 3
R: 4
S: 10
@SEA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 7
@SEA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 8
@SEA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 3
S: 7
@LAA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 6
@LAA
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 7
@LAA
H: 9
L: 9
R: 7
S: 6
hou.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 4
L: 6
R: 4
S: 8
@OAK
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 5
@OAK
H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 4
@OAK
H: 4
L: 8
R: 1
S: 5
CLE
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 6
CLE
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 8
CLE
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 7
kan.gif
5 total
0 home
2 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 2
L: 3
R: 4
S: 5
@ATL
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6
@ATL
H: 5
L: 3
R: 5
S: 5
@BOS
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 5
@BOS
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 6
@BOS
H: 10
L: 8
R: 9
S: 6
laa.gif
6 total
3 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R
H: 5
L: 5
R: 6
S: 7
@MIN
H: 6
L: 4
R: 8
S: 6
@MIN
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 7
@MIN
H: 7
L: 4
R: 8
S: 5
DET
H: 3
L: 3
R: 4
S: 6
DET
H: 8
L: 8
R: 6
S: 6
DET
H: 2
L: 4
R: 2
S: 5
min.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 8
LAA
H: 9
L: 9
R: 8
S: 6
LAA
H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 6
LAA
H: 5
L: 7
R: 3
S: 8
@CWS
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 6
@CWS
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 6
@CWS
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 6
nyy.gif
6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 4
L: 2
R: 6
S: 2
ARI
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 2
ARI
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 1
ARI
H: 6
L: 2
R: 7
S: 1
@TOR
H: 5
L: 4
R: 7
S: 4
@TOR
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 3
@TOR
H: 2
L: 3
R: 2
S: 5
oak.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 2
L: 5
R: 2
S: 9
HOU
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 7
HOU
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 8
HOU
H: 5
L: 7
R: 2
S: 7
@TB
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 7
@TB
H: 4
L: 6
R: 1
S: 5
@TB
H: 6
L: 6
R: 4
S: 6
sea.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 2
L: 3
R: 3
S: 7
DET
H: 2
L: 3
R: 2
S: 5
DET
H: 5
L: 6
R: 3
S: 6
DET
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6
@TEX
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 7
@TEX
H: 8
L: 7
R: 8
S: 6
@TEX
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 6
tam.gif
7 total
3 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 5
@BOS
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 6
@BAL
H: 8
L: 10
R: 4
S: 1
@BAL
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 1
@BAL
H: 3
L: 2
R: 5
S: 1
OAK
H: 3
L: 5
R: 3
S: 6
OAK
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 7
OAK
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 5
tex.gif
6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 6
L: 5
R: 8
S: 10
@CHC
H: 4
L: 2
R: 5
S: 6
@CHC
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 7
@CHC
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 7
SEA
H: 8
L: 1
R: 10
S: 6
SEA
H: 10
L: 10
R: 10
S: 9
SEA
H: 7
L: 8
R: 7
S: 7
tor.gif
7 total
7 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 7
L: 5
R: 10
S: 8
CWS
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 6
CWS
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 6
CWS
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 5
CWS
H: 3
L: 1
R: 7
S: 5
NYY
H: 9
L: 6
R: 10
S: 5
NYY
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 5
NYY
H: 3
L: 1
R: 6
S: 4
ari.gif
6 total
0 home
4 vs. L
2 vs. R
H: 7
L: 4
R: 10
S: 4
@NYY
H: 3
L: 1
R: 6
S: 4
@NYY
H: 7
L: 6
R: 8
S: 5
@NYY
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 5
@COL
H: 8
L: 2
R: 10
S: 4
@COL
H: 9
L: 8
R: 8
S: 4
@COL
H: 10
L: 6
R: 10
S: 4
atl.gif
6 total
2 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 5
KC
H: 7
L: 7
R: 5
S: 2
KC
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 3
@PIT
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 6
@PIT
H: 3
L: 2
R: 4
S: 6
@PIT
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 6
@PIT
H: 7
L: 5
R: 8
S: 6
chc.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 4
L: 4
R: 6
S: 7
TEX
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 6
TEX
H: 8
L: 5
R: 10
S: 7
TEX
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 6
@MIL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 3
S: 5
@MIL
H: 5
L: 4
R: 7
S: 6
@MIL
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 4
cin.gif
7 total
7 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 8
L: 8
R: 10
S: 4
PHI
H: 1
L: 2
R: 2
S: 2
PHI
H: 8
L: 9
R: 5
S: 2
PHI
H: 5
L: 2
R: 7
S: 3
MIA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4
MIA
H: 8
L: 7
R: 9
S: 4
MIA
H: 8
L: 10
R: 7
S: 4
MIA
H: 8
L: 5
R: 10
S: 4
col.gif
7 total
7 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 10
L: 10
R: 9
S: 4
NYM
H: 8
L: 7
R: 8
S: 4
NYM
H: 10
L: 7
R: 10
S: 5
NYM
H: 10
L: 10
R: 3
S: 5
NYM
H: 6
L: 8
R: 6
S: 4
ARI
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 1
ARI
H: 5
L: 5
R: 6
S: 2
ARI
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 2
lad.gif
6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 7
L: 7
R: 6
S: 5
SD
H: 5
L: 1
R: 6
S: 7
SD
H: 9
L: 10
R: 6
S: 8
SD
H: 7
L: 10
R: 3
S: 8
@BAL
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 1
@BAL
H: 6
L: 2
R: 7
S: 1
@BAL
H: 8
L: 10
R: 4
S: 1
mia.gif
7 total
3 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R
H: 4
L: 6
R: 5
S: 4
WSH
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 4
WSH
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 5
WSH
H: 4
L: 1
R: 5
S: 4
@CIN
H: 2
L: 4
R: 3
S: 1
@CIN
H: 2
L: 3
R: 2
S: 3
@CIN
H: 7
L: 10
R: 2
S: 2
@CIN
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 3
mil.gif
6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 9
SF
H: 6
L: 3
R: 6
S: 6
SF
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 6
SF
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 7
CHC
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 6
CHC
H: 9
L: 6
R: 10
S: 7
CHC
H: 4
L: 2
R: 5
S: 6
nym.gif
7 total
3 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 5
@COL
H: 9
L: 8
R: 8
S: 4
@COL
H: 10
L: 6
R: 10
S: 4
@COL
H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 3
@COL
H: 5
L: 8
R: 2
S: 3
WSH
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 5
WSH
H: 1
L: 4
R: 1
S: 5
WSH
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 4
phi.gif
7 total
4 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R
H: 6
L: 10
R: 4
S: 1
@CIN
H: 7
L: 10
R: 2
S: 2
@CIN
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 3
@CIN
H: 8
L: 8
R: 7
S: 2
STL
H: 2
L: 3
R: 3
S: 1
STL
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 1
STL
H: 5
L: 9
R: 1
S: 1
STL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 5
S: 1
pit.gif
7 total
7 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R
H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 5
STL
H: 4
L: 9
R: 1
S: 1
STL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 1
STL
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 1
ATL
H: 8
L: 10
R: 1
S: 6
ATL
H: 1
L: 4
R: 1
S: 5
ATL
H: 5
L: 2
R: 6
S: 5
ATL
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6
stl.gif
7 total
0 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 5
L: 6
R: 5
S: 6
@PIT
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 6
@PIT
H: 7
L: 5
R: 8
S: 6
@PIT
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 7
@PHI
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 3
@PHI
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 3
@PHI
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 2
@PHI
H: 7
L: 9
R: 5
S: 2
sdg.gif
6 total
0 home
4 vs. L
2 vs. R
H: 1
L: 1
R: 4
S: 5
@LAD
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 3
@LAD
H: 5
L: 2
R: 7
S: 3
@LAD
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3
@SF
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 7
@SF
H: 3
L: 3
R: 4
S: 7
@SF
H: 5
L: 3
R: 6
S: 6
sfo.gif
6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 8
@MIL
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 4
@MIL
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 6
@MIL
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 4
SD
H: 8
L: 8
R: 7
S: 8
SD
H: 7
L: 4
R: 8
S: 7
SD
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 7
was.gif
6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 6
L: 6
R: 7
S: 5
@MIA
H: 7
L: 9
R: 6
S: 4
@MIA
H: 7
L: 5
R: 9
S: 4
@MIA
H: 7
L: 8
R: 5
S: 4
@NYM
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 5
@NYM
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 4
@NYM
H: 8
L: 5
R: 10
S: 5

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponent's catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.

<H3>Hitting advantages</H3>• In addition to the Dodgers' pitchers matching up nicely this week, their hitters should also benefit from a week in which they won't face any fantasy aces. Carl Crawford is finally healthy and off to a good start, batting .424 in his first nine games, and he'll face a slate of pitchers against whom he has strong career histories. In particular, he's 4-for-7 with a home run against Sunday opponent Jake Arrieta, and 2-for-3 with a homer against Monday opponent Eric Stults.
• In a week of otherwise poor matchups for Baltimore Orioles hitters, Matt Wieters stands out thanks to his track record against the week's scheduled opposing starters. He is a combined 18-for-46 (.391 AVG) with three home runs in his career against the Tampa Bay Rays' three scheduled starters (Roberto Hernandez, Matt Moore and David Price), and he's 6-for-21 (.286 AVG) with one homer in his career against scheduled Saturday foe Josh Beckett.
• Though the rating and the scheduled opponents make the Pittsburgh Pirates' matchups appear unfavorable, this could be the week that Pedro Alvarez finally hits his stride. In particular, consider his track record against Tuesday starter Jake Westbrook (.579 AVG, 2 HR in 20 plate appearances) and Friday starter Tim Hudson (.375/.444/.500 triple-slash rates in nine PAs). The Pirates play seven games, six of them against right-handed starters, which suits Alvarez well.
• Speaking of left-handed power hitters who might start to hit their stride, Ike Davis' matchups this week present him with quite an opportunity. In addition to four games at Colorado's Coors Field, where he's 7-for-15 (.467 AVG) with one double in four career games, his weekend matchups against Washington Nationals starters Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann might not look so daunting if you consider his career history against them: He's 10-for-31 (.323 AVG) with three home runs against the trio.
• AL-only owners scrambling to fill infield spots might want to take a look at two Chicago White Sox: Jeff Keppinger and Conor Gillaspie. That the White Sox play three of their seven games against left-handed starters stacks the deck in favor of Keppinger, a career .333/.376/.487 hitter against that side. Keep in mind, as well, that one of the right-handers, Kevin Correia, has afforded .455/.500/.818 rates to Keppinger in 14 career PAs. As for Gillaspie, he's getting increased playing time with Gordon Beckham sidelined, and has three multihit games in his past five.
Tristan's Week 3 pitcher rankings: Top 75[/h]1. Cliff Lee (PHI) -- Mon-@CIN (Arroyo), Sat-STL (Lynn)
2. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Wed-SD (Ross)
3. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Thu-@SEA (Iwakuma)
4. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) -- Mon-@MIA (LeBlanc), Sun-@NYM (Laffey)
5. Yu Darvish (TEX) -- Fri-SEA (Saunders)
6. Felix Hernandez (SEA) -- Wed-DET (Scherzer)
7. Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Fri-SD (Volquez)
8. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) -- Sat-@NYM (Gee)
9. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) -- Fri-@NYM (Harvey)
10. Matt Harvey (NYM) -- Fri-WSH (Strasburg)
11. Kris Medlen (ATL) -- Tue-KC (Guthrie), Sun-@PIT (Sanchez)
12. Johnny Cueto (CIN) -- Thu-MIA (Fernandez)
13. Doug Fister (DET) -- Tue-@SEA (Harang), Sun-@LAA (Blanton)
14. Mat Latos (CIN) -- Fri-MIA (Slowey)
15. Adam Wainwright (STL) -- Thu-@PHI (Hamels)
16. Lance Lynn (STL) -- Mon-@PIT (McDonald), Sat-@PHI (Lee)
17. Jon Lester (BOS) -- Thu-@CLE (McAllister)
18. Matt Moore (TB) -- Wed-@BAL (Tillman)
19. Chris Sale (CWS) -- Thu-@TOR (Dickey)
20. Derek Holland (TEX) -- Tue-@CHC (Wood), Sun-SEA (Harang)
21. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) -- Thu-TEX (Ogando)
22. Homer Bailey (CIN) -- Tue-PHI (Kendrick), Sun-MIA (Sanabia)
23. Matt Cain (SF) -- Thu-@MIL (Lohse)
24. Tommy Milone (OAK) -- Mon-HOU (Bedard), Sun-@TB (Hernandez)
25. David Price (TB) -- Thu-@BAL (Gonzalez)
26. CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Thu-ARI (Corbin)
27. Chad Billingsley (LAD) -- Mon-SD (Stults), Sun-@BAL (Arrieta)
28. Alexi Ogando (TEX) -- Thu-@CHC (Samardzija)
29. James McDonald (PIT) -- Mon-STL (Lynn), Sat-ATL (Maholm)
30. Brett Anderson (OAK) -- Fri-@TB (Cobb)
31. Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Thu-STL (Wainwright)
32. Alex Cobb (TB) -- Fri-OAK (Anderson)
33. Jake Peavy (CWS) -- Fri-MIN (Diamond)
34. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) -- Mon-@BOS (Dempster), Sat-OAK (Parker)
35. Clay Buchholz (BOS) -- Fri-KC (Shields)
36. Anibal Sanchez (DET) -- Fri-@LAA (Richards)
37. Jaime Garcia (STL) -- Fri-@PHI (Halladay)
38. Ryan Dempster (BOS) -- Mon-TB (Hellickson), Sat-KC (Santana)
39. Max Scherzer (DET) -- Wed-@SEA (Hernandez)
40. Andy Pettitte (NYY) -- Tue-ARI (McCarthy), Sun-@TOR (Johnson)
41. Tim Hudson (ATL) -- Fri-@PIT (Rodriguez)
42. Paul Maholm (ATL) -- Sat-@PIT (McDonald)
43. Mike Minor (ATL) -- Wed-KC (Davis)
44. Josh Johnson (TOR) -- Tue-CWS (Axelrod), Sun-NYY (Pettitte)
45. James Shields (KC) -- Fri-@BOS (Buchholz)
46. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -- Fri-CHC (Jackson)
47. Tim Lincecum (SF) -- Sat-SD (Richard)
48. Erik Bedard (HOU) -- Mon-@OAK (Milone), Sun-CLE (Jimenez)
49. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) -- Thu-DET (Verlander)
50. R.A. Dickey (TOR) -- Thu-CWS (Sale)
51. Ian Kennedy (ARI) -- Fri-@COL (De La Rosa)
52. Gavin Floyd (CWS) -- Mon-@TOR (Buehrle), Sat-MIN (Correia)
53. Marco Estrada (MIL) -- Sat-CHC (Feldman)
54. Shelby Miller (STL) -- Wed-@PIT (Burnett)
55. Jonathon Niese (NYM) -- Thu-@COL (Chacin)
56. C.J. Wilson (LAA) -- Sat-DET (Porcello)
57. Barry Zito (SF) -- Tue-@MIL (Peralta), Sun-SD (Stults)
58. Wandy Rodriguez (PIT) -- Fri-ATL (Hudson)
59. Wily Peralta (MIL) -- Tue-SF (Zito), Sun-CHC (Wood)
60. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) -- Sat-@TOR (Buehrle)
61. Justin Masterson (CLE) -- Wed-BOS (Aceves)
62. A.J. Griffin (OAK) -- Tue-HOU (Peacock)
63. Brandon McCarthy (ARI) -- Tue-@NYY (Pettitte), Sun-@COL (Francis)
64. Miguel Gonzalez (BAL) -- Thu-TB (Price)
65. Brandon Morrow (TOR) -- Fri-NYY (Hughes)
66. Bronson Arroyo (CIN) -- Mon-PHI (Lee), Sat-MIA (LeBlanc)
67. Wade Miley (ARI) -- Wed-@NYY (Nova)
68. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) -- Fri-@BAL (Hammel)
69. Ross Detwiler (WSH) -- Wed-@MIA (Nolasco)
70. Kyle Lohse (MIL) -- Thu-SF (Cain)
71. Jake Westbrook (STL) -- Tue-@PIT (Sanchez), Sun-@PHI (Kendrick)
72. Jose Fernandez (MIA) -- Thu-@CIN (Cueto)
73. Jhoulys Chacin (COL) -- Thu-NYM (Niese)
74. A.J. Burnett (PIT) -- Wed-STL (Miller)
75. Jarrod Parker (OAK) -- Sat-@TB (Hellickson)

Two-start options for AL-/NL-only leagues:
Jake Arrieta (BAL) -- Tue-TB (Hernandez), Sun-LAD (Billingsley)
Mark Buehrle (TOR) -- Mon-CWS (Floyd), Sat-NYY (Kuroda)
Felix Doubront (BOS) -- Tue-@CLE (Jimenez), Sun-KC (Guthrie)
Dillon Gee (NYM) -- Mon-@COL (Nicasio), Sat-WSH (Gonzalez)
Jeremy Guthrie (KC) -- Tue-@ATL (Medlen), Sun-@BOS (Doubront)
Eric Stults (SD) -- Mon-@LAD (Billingsley), Sun-@SF (Zito)
Travis Wood (CHC) -- Tue-TEX (Holland), Sun-@MIL (Peralta)

No-thank-yous, among two-start pitchers:
Dylan Axelrod (CWS) -- Tue-@TOR (Johnson), Sun-MIN (Pelfrey)
Joe Blanton (LAA) -- Mon-@MIN (Correia), Sun-DET (Fister)
Kevin Correia (MIN) -- Mon-LAA (Blanton), Sat-@CWS (Floyd)
Jeff Francis (COL) -- Tue-NYM (Laffey), Sun-ARI (McCarthy)
Roberto Hernandez (TB) -- Tue-@BAL (Arrieta), Sun-OAK (Milone)
Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) -- Tue-BOS (Doubront), Sun-@HOU (Bedard)
Kyle Kendrick (PHI) -- Tue-@CIN (Bailey), Sun-STL (Westbrook)
Aaron Laffey (NYM) -- Tue-@COL (Francis), Sun-WSH (Zimmermann)
Wade LeBlanc (MIA) -- Mon-WSH (Zimmermann), Sat-@CIN (Arroyo)
Juan Nicasio (COL) -- Mon-NYM (Gee), Sat-ARI (Cahill)
Mike Pelfrey (MIN) -- Tue-LAA (Vargas), Sun-@CWS (Axelrod)
Alex Sanabia (MIA) -- Tue-WSH (Haren), Sun-@CIN (Bailey)
Jonathan Sanchez (PIT) -- Tue-STL (Westbrook), Sun-ATL (Medlen)

[h=3]Pitching advantages[/h]• Panicky David Price owners need look no further than his track record against the division-rival Baltimore Orioles for solace; he tossed a quality start against them just this month (April 2). In six career starts at Baltimore's Camden Yards, Price has three wins, four quality starts, a 2.54 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, with current Orioles a combined .230/.276/.326 hitting against him with a 26 percent strikeout rate.


• Paul Maholm returns to PNC Park, where on Saturday he'll face his former Pittsburgh Pirates mates. He had two quality starts, a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his three games there as a visitor in 2012, and he's one of the hottest pickups in fantasy thanks to a strong spring and solid first two regular-season weeks.
• Of all the Coors Field visitors this week, have little fear of Ian Kennedy's matchup. As a member of the National League West, he's one of the visitors most familiar with Coors, and his three quality starts, 3.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in five career games in Denver show that he has been reasonably successful there historically.
• Clayton Kershaw is a no-brainer fantasy play, but don't underestimate the strength of his matchup against the San Diego Padres. He has eight wins, 11 quality starts, a 2.28 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 17 career starts against them, and as stated earlier, the Dodgers will be plenty motivated to make a statement in this rematch. That also applies to Monday starter Chad Billingsley, who has eight wins, 10 quality starts, a 2.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 14 starts against the Padres the past four seasons combined. Make sure Billingsley is also in your active lineup.
• Marco Estrada has already defeated the Chicago Cubs once this season (April 8), and between last season and this campaign, he's 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five games (four starts) against them.
• Among deeper sleepers for Week 3: A.J. Griffin and Bartolo Colon (Tuesday and Wednesday, HOU) are 3-for-3 combined in quality starts and will face a weak Houston Astros lineup; Ross Detwiler (Wednesday, @MIA) had a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his three starts versus the Miami Marlins last season (2.89 ERA if you count his two-inning relief stint of May 30); Jhoulys Chacin (Thursday, NYM) has kicked off his 2013 with back-to-back quality starts and has limited current New York Mets to combined .212/.270/.212 lifetime rates; and Nick Tepesch (Saturday, SEA) had a strong big league debut and will face a Seattle Mariners team that isn't much more potent offensively than the Tampa Bay Rays.
• Incidentally, Ubaldo Jimenez (Sunday, @HOU) has limited current Houston Astros to combined .108/.233/.108 lifetime rates, and that's one matchup that might actually rest in his favor. That said, he's for only those owners who can pick and choose from his two starts in leagues with daily transactions; his Tuesday game against the Red Sox is a matchup to avoid.
[h=3]Hitting ratings[/h]The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.
<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
<CENTER>Team </CENTER><CENTER>Games </CENTER><CENTER>Overall
Rating </CENTER>
<CENTER>Mon
4/15 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Tue
4/16 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Wed
4/17 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Thu
4/18 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Fri
4/19 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Sat
4/20 </CENTER>
<CENTER>Sun
4/21 </CENTER>
bal.gif
6 total
6 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 3
L: 4
R: 5
S: 5
TB
H: 7
L: 8
R: 5
S: 6
TB
H: 2
L: 4
R: 3
S: 6
TB
H: 3
L: 1
R: 5
S: 5
LAD
H: 4
L: 1
R: 7
S: 3
LAD
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 5
LAD
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 3
bos.gif
7 total
4 home
0 vs. L
7 vs. R
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 8
TB
H: 5
L: 8
R: 2
S: 5
@CLE
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 7
@CLE
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 6
@CLE
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 7
KC
H: 4
L: 3
R: 7
S: 3
KC
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 4
KC
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 2
chw.gif
7 total
3 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 7
L: 7
R: 9
S: 8
@TOR
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 3
@TOR
H: 2
L: 3
R: 2
S: 5
@TOR
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 4
@TOR
H: 3
L: 4
R: 4
S: 4
MIN
H: 8
L: 8
R: 7
S: 7
MIN
H: 7
L: 5
R: 9
S: 6
MIN
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 7
cle.gif
6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 9
BOS
H: 9
L: 7
R: 9
S: 6
BOS
H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 6
BOS
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 6
@HOU
H: 7
L: 9
R: 5
S: 7
@HOU
H: 4
L: 7
R: 1
S: 8
@HOU
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 7
det.gif
6 total
0 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 2
L: 3
R: 4
S: 10
@SEA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 7
@SEA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 8
@SEA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 3
S: 7
@LAA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 6
@LAA
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 7
@LAA
H: 9
L: 9
R: 7
S: 6
hou.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 4
L: 6
R: 4
S: 8
@OAK
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 5
@OAK
H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 4
@OAK
H: 4
L: 8
R: 1
S: 5
CLE
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 6
CLE
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 8
CLE
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 7
kan.gif
5 total
0 home
2 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 2
L: 3
R: 4
S: 5
@ATL
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6
@ATL
H: 5
L: 3
R: 5
S: 5
@BOS
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 5
@BOS
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 6
@BOS
H: 10
L: 8
R: 9
S: 6
laa.gif
6 total
3 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R
H: 5
L: 5
R: 6
S: 7
@MIN
H: 6
L: 4
R: 8
S: 6
@MIN
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 7
@MIN
H: 7
L: 4
R: 8
S: 5
DET
H: 3
L: 3
R: 4
S: 6
DET
H: 8
L: 8
R: 6
S: 6
DET
H: 2
L: 4
R: 2
S: 5
min.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 8
LAA
H: 9
L: 9
R: 8
S: 6
LAA
H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 6
LAA
H: 5
L: 7
R: 3
S: 8
@CWS
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 6
@CWS
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 6
@CWS
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 6
nyy.gif
6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 4
L: 2
R: 6
S: 2
ARI
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 2
ARI
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 1
ARI
H: 6
L: 2
R: 7
S: 1
@TOR
H: 5
L: 4
R: 7
S: 4
@TOR
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 3
@TOR
H: 2
L: 3
R: 2
S: 5
oak.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 2
L: 5
R: 2
S: 9
HOU
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 7
HOU
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 8
HOU
H: 5
L: 7
R: 2
S: 7
@TB
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 7
@TB
H: 4
L: 6
R: 1
S: 5
@TB
H: 6
L: 6
R: 4
S: 6
sea.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 2
L: 3
R: 3
S: 7
DET
H: 2
L: 3
R: 2
S: 5
DET
H: 5
L: 6
R: 3
S: 6
DET
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6
@TEX
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 7
@TEX
H: 8
L: 7
R: 8
S: 6
@TEX
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 6
tam.gif
7 total
3 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 5
@BOS
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 6
@BAL
H: 8
L: 10
R: 4
S: 1
@BAL
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 1
@BAL
H: 3
L: 2
R: 5
S: 1
OAK
H: 3
L: 5
R: 3
S: 6
OAK
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 7
OAK
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 5
tex.gif
6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 6
L: 5
R: 8
S: 10
@CHC
H: 4
L: 2
R: 5
S: 6
@CHC
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 7
@CHC
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 7
SEA
H: 8
L: 1
R: 10
S: 6
SEA
H: 10
L: 10
R: 10
S: 9
SEA
H: 7
L: 8
R: 7
S: 7
tor.gif
7 total
7 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 7
L: 5
R: 10
S: 8
CWS
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 6
CWS
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 6
CWS
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 5
CWS
H: 3
L: 1
R: 7
S: 5
NYY
H: 9
L: 6
R: 10
S: 5
NYY
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 5
NYY
H: 3
L: 1
R: 6
S: 4
ari.gif
6 total
0 home
4 vs. L
2 vs. R
H: 7
L: 4
R: 10
S: 4
@NYY
H: 3
L: 1
R: 6
S: 4
@NYY
H: 7
L: 6
R: 8
S: 5
@NYY
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 5
@COL
H: 8
L: 2
R: 10
S: 4
@COL
H: 9
L: 8
R: 8
S: 4
@COL
H: 10
L: 6
R: 10
S: 4
atl.gif
6 total
2 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 5
KC
H: 7
L: 7
R: 5
S: 2
KC
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 3
@PIT
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 6
@PIT
H: 3
L: 2
R: 4
S: 6
@PIT
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 6
@PIT
H: 7
L: 5
R: 8
S: 6
chc.gif
6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 4
L: 4
R: 6
S: 7
TEX
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 6
TEX
H: 8
L: 5
R: 10
S: 7
TEX
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 6
@MIL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 3
S: 5
@MIL
H: 5
L: 4
R: 7
S: 6
@MIL
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 4
cin.gif
7 total
7 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 8
L: 8
R: 10
S: 4
PHI
H: 1
L: 2
R: 2
S: 2
PHI
H: 8
L: 9
R: 5
S: 2
PHI
H: 5
L: 2
R: 7
S: 3
MIA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4
MIA
H: 8
L: 7
R: 9
S: 4
MIA
H: 8
L: 10
R: 7
S: 4
MIA
H: 8
L: 5
R: 10
S: 4
col.gif
7 total
7 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 10
L: 10
R: 9
S: 4
NYM
H: 8
L: 7
R: 8
S: 4
NYM
H: 10
L: 7
R: 10
S: 5
NYM
H: 10
L: 10
R: 3
S: 5
NYM
H: 6
L: 8
R: 6
S: 4
ARI
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 1
ARI
H: 5
L: 5
R: 6
S: 2
ARI
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 2
lad.gif
6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 7
L: 7
R: 6
S: 5
SD
H: 5
L: 1
R: 6
S: 7
SD
H: 9
L: 10
R: 6
S: 8
SD
H: 7
L: 10
R: 3
S: 8
@BAL
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 1
@BAL
H: 6
L: 2
R: 7
S: 1
@BAL
H: 8
L: 10
R: 4
S: 1
mia.gif
7 total
3 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R
H: 4
L: 6
R: 5
S: 4
WSH
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 4
WSH
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 5
WSH
H: 4
L: 1
R: 5
S: 4
@CIN
H: 2
L: 4
R: 3
S: 1
@CIN
H: 2
L: 3
R: 2
S: 3
@CIN
H: 7
L: 10
R: 2
S: 2
@CIN
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 3
mil.gif
6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 9
SF
H: 6
L: 3
R: 6
S: 6
SF
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 6
SF
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 7
CHC
H: 6
L: 7
R: 4
S: 6
CHC
H: 9
L: 6
R: 10
S: 7
CHC
H: 4
L: 2
R: 5
S: 6
nym.gif
7 total
3 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 5
@COL
H: 9
L: 8
R: 8
S: 4
@COL
H: 10
L: 6
R: 10
S: 4
@COL
H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 3
@COL
H: 5
L: 8
R: 2
S: 3
WSH
H: 1
L: 3
R: 1
S: 5
WSH
H: 1
L: 4
R: 1
S: 5
WSH
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 4
phi.gif
7 total
4 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R
H: 6
L: 10
R: 4
S: 1
@CIN
H: 7
L: 10
R: 2
S: 2
@CIN
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 3
@CIN
H: 8
L: 8
R: 7
S: 2
STL
H: 2
L: 3
R: 3
S: 1
STL
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 1
STL
H: 5
L: 9
R: 1
S: 1
STL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 5
S: 1
pit.gif
7 total
7 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R
H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 5
STL
H: 4
L: 9
R: 1
S: 1
STL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 1
STL
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 1
ATL
H: 8
L: 10
R: 1
S: 6
ATL
H: 1
L: 4
R: 1
S: 5
ATL
H: 5
L: 2
R: 6
S: 5
ATL
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6
stl.gif
7 total
0 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 5
L: 6
R: 5
S: 6
@PIT
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 6
@PIT
H: 7
L: 5
R: 8
S: 6
@PIT
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 7
@PHI
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 3
@PHI
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 3
@PHI
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 2
@PHI
H: 7
L: 9
R: 5
S: 2
sdg.gif
6 total
0 home
4 vs. L
2 vs. R
H: 1
L: 1
R: 4
S: 5
@LAD
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 3
@LAD
H: 5
L: 2
R: 7
S: 3
@LAD
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3
@SF
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 7
@SF
H: 3
L: 3
R: 4
S: 7
@SF
H: 5
L: 3
R: 6
S: 6
sfo.gif
6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 8
@MIL
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 4
@MIL
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 6
@MIL
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 4
SD
H: 8
L: 8
R: 7
S: 8
SD
H: 7
L: 4
R: 8
S: 7
SD
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 7
was.gif
6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R
H: 6
L: 6
R: 7
S: 5
@MIA
H: 7
L: 9
R: 6
S: 4
@MIA
H: 7
L: 5
R: 9
S: 4
@MIA
H: 7
L: 8
R: 5
S: 4
@NYM
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 5
@NYM
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 4
@NYM
H: 8
L: 5
R: 10
S: 5

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponent's catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.

[h=3]Hitting advantages[/h]• In addition to the Dodgers' pitchers matching up nicely this week, their hitters should also benefit from a week in which they won't face any fantasy aces. Carl Crawford is finally healthy and off to a good start, batting .424 in his first nine games, and he'll face a slate of pitchers against whom he has strong career histories. In particular, he's 4-for-7 with a home run against Sunday opponent Jake Arrieta, and 2-for-3 with a homer against Monday opponent Eric Stults.
• In a week of otherwise poor matchups for Baltimore Orioles hitters, Matt Wieters stands out thanks to his track record against the week's scheduled opposing starters. He is a combined 18-for-46 (.391 AVG) with three home runs in his career against the Tampa Bay Rays' three scheduled starters (Roberto Hernandez, Matt Moore and David Price), and he's 6-for-21 (.286 AVG) with one homer in his career against scheduled Saturday foe Josh Beckett.
• Though the rating and the scheduled opponents make the Pittsburgh Pirates' matchups appear unfavorable, this could be the week that Pedro Alvarez finally hits his stride. In particular, consider his track record against Tuesday starter Jake Westbrook (.579 AVG, 2 HR in 20 plate appearances) and Friday starter Tim Hudson (.375/.444/.500 triple-slash rates in nine PAs). The Pirates play seven games, six of them against right-handed starters, which suits Alvarez well.
• Speaking of left-handed power hitters who might start to hit their stride, Ike Davis' matchups this week present him with quite an opportunity. In addition to four games at Colorado's Coors Field, where he's 7-for-15 (.467 AVG) with one double in four career games, his weekend matchups against Washington Nationals starters Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann might not look so daunting if you consider his career history against them: He's 10-for-31 (.323 AVG) with three home runs against the trio.
• AL-only owners scrambling to fill infield spots might want to take a look at two Chicago White Sox: Jeff Keppinger and Conor Gillaspie. That the White Sox play three of their seven games against left-handed starters stacks the deck in favor of Keppinger, a career .333/.376/.487 hitter against that side. Keep in mind, as well, that one of the right-handers, Kevin Correia, has afforded .455/.500/.818 rates to Keppinger in 14 career PAs. As for Gillaspie, he's getting increased playing time with Gordon Beckham sidelined, and has three multihit games in his past five.
 

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Panic over slow-starting bats?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

It's a lesson we're taught every April, yet despite years of absorbing it, even experienced fantasy owners seem to forget it.
There's no reason to panic with your slow starters.


Well, that's true for most players. Sample sizes are small, with stories that cannot yet be told merely by the numbers, but we understand if you're closely examining all your worst performers, hoping to find a rationale behind their stats.
For some -- a precariously small bunch -- a hidden injury or a change in approach could be responsible. For others, it's merely random variance, which we can illustrate by showing you five players from 2012 who were struggling as of this date:
Aramis Ramirez: He was batting .114 with zero home runs through nine games and hit .312 with 27 homers and 100 RBIs in his next 140.
Alex Gordon: He was batting .128 with one homer in 10 games, and he managed .305/.377/.469 triple-slash rates in his next 151.
Ryan Zimmerman: A .209 hitter without a home run through his first 11 games, he batted .288 with 25 homers and 91 RBIs in his next 134.
Freddie Freeman: He was hitting .162 without a home run in his first nine games, but he managed 23 homers and 93 RBIs in his next 138.
Giancarlo Stanton: He was batting .229 with zero home runs in his first nine games, and he hit .295 with 37 homers in his next 114.
So which is it for this year's slow starters?
There's no easy answer to that, but at the same time, it's foolish to completely write off the numbers to date. After all, small samples or not, that's what fantasy baseball is built upon: Small samples. The key is remembering not to overrate such facts, rather tucking them away as you formulate your decisions in upcoming weeks.
Today, let's examine 10 of the most frustrating players in fantasy baseball to date. Might any of them warrant panic? Read on &
i

Alvarez
Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates: Understandably, Alvarez's owners are frustrated, and with good reason. With a .073 batting average, zero extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts in his 41 at-bats, he has certainly earned his standing as the third-worst hitter on our Player Rater to date. His performance also might draw painful memories of his 2011, when he batted .191 with four homers and suffered a demotion to the minors.
Still, anyone who drafted Alvarez knew his propensity for streaks; players who have his strikeout rate of 30 percent or greater tend to endure painful slumps such as this. For example, he batted .067 with 15 K's in 30 at-bats (albeit with two home runs) in his first 10 games of last season. He also endured two separate spans of 15 games during which his batting average was .151 or worse later that year.
Granted, pitchers are testing him more with breaking pitches -- he has seen fastballs only 36 percent of the time thus far -- but Alvarez improved substantially against them in 2012, to the point where giving up on him this quickly would be foolish. He hit nine home runs against curveballs and sliders last season, meaning there's hope of a turnaround yet. Verdict: No reason to panic.
i

Martinez
Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers: Tigers fans -- and fantasy owners of their hitters -- might have noticed that, on Tuesday, six of their nine starters boasted batting averages of .300 or greater at the start of play. Yet remarkably, No. 5 hitter Martinez was one of the three to sport a sub-.200 mark entering the game, and he had only four RBIs despite the four men who bat ahead of him all having on-base percentages of .400 or greater.
Mark Simon shared one possible explanation. ESPN Stats & Information uses a video-tracking service that tracks "hard-hit balls" using the eye test but with definitions of hard-hit well-established after years of tracking. He points out that the average major leaguer gets hits on about two-thirds to 70 percent of his hard-hit balls. Martinez himself is evidence of this; from 2009 to 2011, he got hits on 68.3 percent of hard-hit balls.
In 2013, however, Martinez has 15 hard-hit balls -- and only six hits. An average player would probably have 10 or 11 by now. And Martinez's nine outs when he makes hard contact are most in the majors. Keep that in mind if you're sweating his "slow start." Verdict: No reason to panic.
i

Kipnis
Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians: In addition to missing each of the Indians' past three games and six of their past nine, Kipnis has gotten off to a miserable start with the bat, hitting .125 with no home runs or stolen bases. The latter two are more bothersome; Kipnis contributed 14 homers and 31 steals to his fantasy teams in 2012.
In Kipnis' case, there is something of long-term concern: the health of his right elbow, which was responsible for his recent absences. It's an injury that dates back to spring training -- the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported March 22 that he had injured it playing long toss -- and one that likely contributed to his .179/.230/.339 triple-slash rates during the spring. Injuries can help explain early struggles, so it's understandable if Kipnis' owners are worried. Verdict: Some panic -- all health-related -- is warranted.
i

Hamilton
Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels: Hamilton was one of my "Bleagh" players for 2013, and many of the concerns outlined in that column have extended into the season. After striking out in 25.5 percent of his trips to the plate last season -- 29.3 percent after the All-Star break -- he has whiffed at a ghastly 29 percent rate in 2013. It is his newfound propensity to swing and miss that has put his batting average in the higher-risk category; he's a .200 hitter thus far and might struggle to approach 2012's .285.
That said, Hamilton deserves patience for two reasons. One is that he's adapting to new surroundings, which might have caused the kind of adjustment period we're seeing, and the other is that he remains one of the more powerful bats in one of the most potent lineups in the league, meaning home runs and RBIs should be plentiful. Verdict: It depends upon your preseason expectations; had you drafted him as a .270 hitter with 30 home runs, as recommended, there's no cause for alarm.
i

Bruce
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds: His is a strange stat line; he leads the National League in strikeouts (19) yet has batted .262 despite his early struggles. More frustrating is Bruce's lack of power, as he hasn't hit a home run in 61 at-bats. Still, it's not the longest homer drought of his career; Bruce has had four streaks that were longer in the past three seasons alone (2010-12).
Perhaps if Bruce continues to strike out at his elevated current rate of 29.5 percent of his plate appearances, he'll struggle to top his 2012 career high of 34 home runs and might have a difficult time batting higher than the .252 he did last season. But Bruce's streaky tendencies build his case for patience, as last season alone he endured a 25-game span in which he homered 12 times and an 11-game span in which he homered seven times. Verdict: No reason to panic.
i

Heyward
Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves: He has the seventh-worst qualified batting average in baseball (.116), but if there's a most-irrelevant fantasy statistic for this time of year, batting average is it. Few numbers are flukier, and Heyward's .091 batting average on balls in play shows that he has hardly gotten the benefit of many lucky bounces.
Here's another thing to remember: Even in Heyward's outstanding 2012, he had just a .233 batting average and six home runs through his first 50 games, meaning that it's not like he started last year off hot either. He hit his second home run of the season Tuesday and has made contact at a higher rate thus far too. Verdict: No reason to panic, other than that batting average might never be his strong suit.
i

Kemp
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: Unlike some of the names above, there is something with Kemp that could warrant concern going forward, that being his ongoing recovery from October surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff damage in his left shoulder. He has batted just .185 through his first 14 games, with a bloated 29.3 percent strikeout rate that is more than 6 percentage points higher than his 2012 number.
Kemp has made hard contact only nine times in 38 balls in play this season (24 percent), whereas in 2012, he did so on 33 percent of his balls in play. Still, a sluggish start coming off that kind of operation is understandable, and his fantasy owners need be patient accordingly. The problem: If Kemp is to be classified a buy-low candidate, might it be smarter to wait a couple of weeks to see whether he picks up the pace slightly first? Verdict: Some panic is warranted, but it doesn't remotely mean bail on him.
i

Montero
Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners: This one is all about league context; there is a vastly different strategy required in one of our standard, 10-team mixed leagues than in, say, an AL-only league of 12 teams with two starting catchers. In the latter, Montero's owners need be patient, if only because there isn't much else out there to improve upon his lackluster production. Through 10 games, he's batting .211 with only one extra-base hit (a double) and he has yet to draw his first walk.
Montero's defensive performance, however, might be the larger problem. Through those 10 games, opposing base stealers are 6-for-6 against him, and he has committed one passed ball, the Mariners' five wild pitches with him behind the plate. In terms of raw defensive ability, Montero is probably more suited to being the designated hitter rather than catcher -- except the Mariners have a better bat there in Kendrys Morales, as well as several other players whose defensive deficiencies paint a similar DH picture (Raul Ibanez, Michael Morse). Verdict: In a 10-team mixed league with one catcher, feel free to panic. Otherwise, be patient.
i

Moustakas
Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals: At least he has a higher batting average than Pedro Alvarez (.167, to Alvarez's .073). Moustakas' fantasy owners can't be any more pleased with his results, though, and the aggravating part is that he finished the 2012 campaign similarly poorly, batting .204 with one home run in 29 games from Sept. 1 on.
Moustakas did spend the winter working to improve his approach at the plate, and it's possible that he's merely enduring an adjustment related to that. He's swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, particularly when behind in the count, and he has cut 5 percentage points off his strikeout rate (15.2 percent this year, 20.2 percent in 2012). That he typically doesn't walk much and has a high fly-ball rate (47.1 percent) in his career makes him another player at risk of falling into extended funks. But he has untapped power potential, and he might be a nice buy-low option. Verdict: No reason to panic.
i

Gomez
Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers: He's a streaky player if you ever saw one. His ratio of 4.9 strikeouts per walk last season was fourth worst among players who came to the plate at least 450 times. Gomez has also never batted higher than .260 in a single year, and even during his breakthrough in the second half of 2012, he batted just .278.
Still, what's most puzzling about Gomez's slow start is this: He hasn't stolen a base, having been caught stealing on his only attempt. That's a large part of what has been pushing his rotisserie ranking down, but his next-level stats continue to reflect the aggressive approach he brought to the plate last year. He has swung 83 percent of the time on pitches in the strike zone, which would represent the third consecutive year that number has risen, and his well-hit average (percentage of at-bats that resulted in hard contact) is up, going from .189 to .196. Verdict: No reason to panic.
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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rk" column. Previous Ranking ("Prv Rk") is ESPN's preseason ranking among all hitters.
<CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
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<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER><CENTER>#</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER>
<CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
1Miguel Cabrera, Det3B1276Rickie Weeks, Mil2B870
2Ryan Braun, MilOF1177Alcides Escobar, KCSS783
3Andrew McCutchen, PitOF2478Carlos Gomez, MilOF3676
4Mike Trout, LAAOF3379Jed Lowrie, OakSS899
5Robinson Cano, NYY2B1580Carlos Beltran, StLOF3780
6Justin Upton, AtlOF4981Brett Gardner, NYYOF3882
7Carlos Gonzalez, ColOF5782Aramis Ramirez, Mil3B1181
8Prince Fielder, Det1B11083Torii Hunter, DetOF3996
9Joey Votto, Cin1B2884Aaron Hill, Ari2B950
10David Wright, NYM3B21385Ben Revere, PhiOF4084
11Matt Kemp, LADOF6686Howie Kendrick, LAA2B1089
12Troy Tulowitzki, ColSS11487Kevin Youkilis, NYY3B1295
13Albert Pujols, LAA1B31188Nelson Cruz, TexOF4186
14Evan Longoria, TB3B31789Victor Martinez, DetC687
15Jose Bautista, TorOF71290Miguel Montero, AriC792
16Adam Jones, BalOF81891Carl Crawford, LADOF42106
17Ian Kinsler, Tex2B21992Mark Teixeira, NYY1B13100
18Giancarlo Stanton, MiaOF91593Neil Walker, Pit2B1188
19Buster Posey, SFC11694Ryan Howard, Phi1B1491
20Bryce Harper, WshOF103095Josh Reddick, OakOF4394
21Adrian Beltre, Tex3B42196Erick Aybar, LAASS985
22Jacoby Ellsbury, BosOF112597David Ortiz, BosDH197
23Jason Heyward, AtlOF122098Alejandro De Aza, CWSOF44101
24Dustin Pedroia, Bos2B32399Wilin Rosario, ColC8103
25Billy Butler, KC1B426100David Freese, StL3B1398
26Brandon Phillips, Cin2B429101Andre Ethier, LADOF4590
27Starlin Castro, ChCSS228102Paul Konerko, CWS1B15109
28Edwin Encarnacion, Tor1B524103Norichika Aoki, MilOF46122
29Austin Jackson, DetOF1334104Coco Crisp, OakOF47108
30Jay Bruce, CinOF1427105Kendrys Morales, Sea1B16104
31Paul Goldschmidt, Ari1B637106Adam LaRoche, Wsh1B1793
32Matt Holliday, StLOF1533107Michael Cuddyer, ColOF48114
33B.J. Upton, AtlOF1631108Jayson Werth, WshOF49118
34Josh Hamilton, LAAOF1732109Nick Swisher, CleOF50105
35Jimmy Rollins, PhiSS338110Derek Jeter, NYYSS10110
36Desmond Jennings, TBOF1836111Dan Uggla, Atl2B12112
37Adrian Gonzalez, LAD1B740112Nick Markakis, BalOF51117
38Elvis Andrus, TexSS444113Jason Kubel, AriOF52102
39Ben Zobrist, TBOF1939114Lance Berkman, Tex1B18120
40Ian Desmond, WshSS541115Manny Machado, Bal3B14119
41Alex Rios, CWSOF2045116Everth Cabrera, SDSS11130
42Shin-Soo Choo, CinOF2147117Daniel Murphy, NYM2B13123
43Alex Gordon, KCOF2249118Will Middlebrooks, Bos3B15111
44Pablo Sandoval, SF3B548119Mike Moustakas, KC3B16107
45Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh3B642120Justin Morneau, Min1B19126
46Michael Bourn, CleOF2335121Salvador Perez, KCC9115
47Yadier Molina, StLC251122Mike Napoli, BosC10133
48Martin Prado, AriOF2455123Jose Reyes, TorSS1222
49Allen Craig, StL1B846124Kyle Seager, Sea3B17113
50Carlos Santana, CleC352125Danny Espinosa, Wsh2B14121
51Yoenis Cespedes, OakOF2543126Starling Marte, PitOF53139
52Joe Mauer, MinC456127Matt Carpenter, StL1B20141
53Dexter Fowler, ColOF2662128Brandon Moss, Oak1B21134
54Chase Headley, SD3B757129J.J. Hardy, BalSS13124
55Chris Davis, BalOF2765130Jean Segura, MilSS14138
56Mark Trumbo, LAAOF2859131Trevor Plouffe, Min3B18132
57Michael Morse, SeaOF2971132Michael Saunders, SeaOF54140
58Matt Wieters, BalC554133Josh Rutledge, ColSS15142
59Brett Lawrie, Tor3B860134Pedro Alvarez, Pit3B19116
60Jose Altuve, Hou2B561135Chris Young, OakOF55144
61Asdrubal Cabrera, CleSS658136Chris Carter, Hou1B22149
62Curtis Granderson, NYYOF3066137Alexei Ramirez, CWSSS16128
63Hunter Pence, SFOF3174138Jonathan Lucroy, MilC11129
64Hanley Ramirez, LAD3B967139Andrelton Simmons, AtlSS17136
65Chase Utley, Phi2B675140Michael Young, Phi1B23137
66Melky Cabrera, TorOF3269141Mark Reynolds, Cle1B24146
67Josh Willingham, MinOF3363142Adam Dunn, CWS1B25131
68Shane Victorino, BosOF3472143Marco Scutaro, SF2B15127
69Eric Hosmer, KC1B964144Ichiro Suzuki, NYYOF56125
70Anthony Rizzo, ChC1B1073145Garrett Jones, Pit1B26145
71Todd Frazier, Cin3B1077146Franklin Gutierrez, SeaOF57150
72Jason Kipnis, Cle2B753147Matt Adams, StL1B27NR
73Angel Pagan, SFOF3579148Evan Gattis, AtlC12NR
74Freddie Freeman, Atl1B1178149Zack Cozart, CinSS18NR
75Ike Davis, NYM1B1268150J.P. Arencibia, TorC13NR

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hacheman@therx.com
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Aaron Hill the latest MI to go down
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Eric Karabell

Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman/outfielder Martin Prado is already owned in 100 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues, but his value rises a bit now that starting second baseman Aaron Hill has been placed on the disabled list for perhaps four to six weeks with a broken left hand. The transaction occurred Tuesday night, and Prado played his third game of the season at second base later against the New York Yankees, meaning by some point next week, Prado could possibly add more eligibility and help owners who have lost middle infielders Hill and Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Jose Reyes.

<OFFER></OFFER>The Hill injury is a real bummer, because the 72nd player chosen in ESPN average live drafts finished as the 12th-best hitter on the ESPN Player Rater last season. I thought his ADP was a bit harsh considering he was coming off an outstanding season with 26 home runs, 14 stolen bases and a .302 batting average, combined with the position he plays. Only 21 players who qualified for the batting title hit .302 or better last season, and the only three with more home runs and stolen bases than Hill were fantasy first-rounders Mike Trout, Ryan Braun and Andrew McCutchen, all outfielders. That's it. And Hill has hit 26 or more home runs three of the past four seasons, proving that that wasn't a fluke, and he stole 21 bases in 2011.

Hill was originally hit by a James McDonald pitch a full week ago, missed a few games, batted twice over the weekend and then apparently realized he couldn't play through the malady. Fantasy owners in weekly leagues hate when an injured player hits the DL on a Tuesday, a day after the deadline, but trust me, it's worse when someone plays through an injury and goes into a 2-for-20 slump. Hill has had batting average issues in the past, too. Ultimately, I had him ranked a good two rounds earlier than where he was going, in part because I don't want to be stuck at middle infield. Now many of his owners are indeed stuck at middle infield, and Prado won't be eligible there for next Monday's deadline (nor will Toronto's Brett Lawrie, if that happens at all), so the search for help won't be pretty.

When Reyes was injured over the weekend, I listed Jedd Gyorko, Stephen Drew, Dustin Ackley, Jeff Keppinger and Mark Ellis as the better middle infield options available, and honestly, little has changed in three days. The Diamondbacks have several parts to play with -- some who can hit, some who cannot -- in the aftermath of their No. 3 hitter in the lineup going down, but fantasy owners might not be as lucky. Still, as I wrote and said recently about Reyes, Zack Greinke and Jered Weaver, you can't drop Hill in any league, as he's an asset from June moving forward.

Prado can play just anywhere on the field; for those in one-game eligibility formats, he is eligible at shortstop as well. Eric Chavez started at third base against right-hander Ivan Nova (who didn't get pounded, but certainly did not look good), but won't start against lefties. Prado is an underrated hitter as well, a batting average helper who hits double-digit home runs each year, and in 2012 stole a surprising 17 bases (after swiping four the season prior). I do think, however, that Prado's ultimate destination depends on how others fair, and it's not just Chavez.

There will be considerable buzz in the coming days about young shortstop Didi Gregorius, who was promoted to the majors Tuesday. His right elbow strain has healed, and he was hitting .387 with two home runs, two doubles, two walks and only one strikeout in 33 plate appearances at Triple-A Reno. OK, so it's Reno and everyone hits there, but Gregorius brings a reputation for fielding excellence and little else. The general consensus is that the Diamondbacks risked looking silly for the offseason three-way trade that brought Gregorius from the Cincinnati Reds and cost former first-round pick Trevor Bauer, now with the Cleveland Indians. Here is what colleague Keith Law said about the December trade at the time, and it doesn't spell much fantasy value for Gregorius.

Gregorius didn't play Tuesday, and he probably will not be even as valuable from a fantasy sense as relative afterthought Cliff Pennington, who has been handling the shortstop duties. Pennington hasn't attempted a stolen base, which is basically the lone reason to own him in deep fantasy formats. Expect Gregorius to push Pennington aside and remind people of Andrelton Simmons defensively, but not at the plate. Gregorius saw 20 at-bats for the Reds last season, hitting six singles, and in the minor leagues he did not hit for average or power or take walks, and he was a terrible percentage base stealer. Other than that, I guess, he's awesome, though he'll be fun to watch in the field, which fantasy owners forget does matter to the Diamondbacks.

With Gerardo Parra doing nice work in center field -- at the plate and in the field -- and Prado mainly an infielder for the foreseeable future, I'm at least curious to see if A.J. Pollock can keep up his recent fine play before recovering players push him aside. Pollock started in left field against the Yankees on Tuesday, hitting a pair of doubles in four at-bats. Now 25, he isn't one of the team's noteworthy prospects, but he hit .318 at Reno last season with 21 stolen bases. He brings speed, on-base skills and can handle center field, and with Jason Kubel and Adam Eaton on the disabled list, he should play this month, along with power prospect Alfredo Marte. Ultimately, though, the Arizona outfield figures to be Kubel, Eaton and Cody Ross in right field, which is why Parra owners should consider selling high while they can.
 

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D-backs' Hill out with broken bone in hand

Stephania Bell

When the swelling and discomfort in Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Aaron Hill's left hand persisted days after being hit in the hand by a pitch, the team decided to take a closer look. The crack in the bone that had not been visible on two separate X-rays made itself known on an MRI taken Monday.

i

Hill

While the Diamondbacks have not specified the precise location of the injury, typically the reference to a "broken hand" equates to a fractured metacarpal, one of the five long bones connecting the wrist joint to the fingers. Hill appeared to absorb the blow just beneath the fifth finger of his left hand. There has been no report that surgery is needed, and the difficulty in visualizing the break suggests it is small and nondisplaced, all of which are positives. On Tuesday, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported that Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson is offering a four- to six-week timetable for Hill, which is consistent with the time it takes a fracture to heal. How well the bone is healing early on will dictate when Hill can start two-handed activities like swinging a bat.

In 2012, New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez was hit by a pitch and suffered a fractured fifth metacarpal. Rodriguez, who bats and throws right-handed like Hill, missed 40 days total.
 

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Braves' Francisco, Johnson hitting well
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Eric Karabell

The amazing Atlanta Braves continued their winning ways Tuesday night, pounding out five solo home runs in a 6-3 win over the Kansas City Royals. Although outfielder Justin Upton looks MVP-worthy, two of the blasts were courtesy of third baseman Juan Francisco, hitting sixth and boasting a .306 batting average. Hitting one spot later was Chris Johnson, platoon partner at the hot corner until regular first baseman Freddie Freeman needed a disabled list stint for a strained right oblique. Johnson singled and doubled Tuesday, raising his batting average to a gaudy .415 over 41 at-bats.
Freeman is eligible to come off the DL early next week, and there's little question that when he is healthy, he is the full-time starter. But what happens at third base with Francisco and Johnson? Teams that are 12-1 don't have many problems, and this is a good one to have, but fantasy owners have made both these players among the most added third basemen in ESPN standard leagues. Each remains readily available in many leagues, though the way things are going, that doesn't figure to continue.
<OFFER>I'll admit to not being much of a fan of either Francisco or Johnson, because I like hitters to have at least some semblance of plate discipline. Francisco is the one to own in deeper leagues -- as in, not 10-team mixed versions -- because he brings the power, and as the lefty hitter, he figures to play more. Now 26, Francisco would likely hit more than 20 home runs if he were to be given more than 400 at-bats. Of course, this doesn't make Francisco a particularly good hitter, as he will swing and miss a lot and hurt your batting average, but in deeper leagues, that can be overlooked if power is there. Francisco hit nine home runs in 192 at-bats for the Braves last season, though the .234 batting average (.278 OBP) mitigated the value quite a bit. Francisco was a noted hacker in the minors (99 walks, 591 strikeouts!), but he always supplied power, bashing 109 home runs over a five-year period upon turning 20.</OFFER>


Johnson is hardly the OBP machine himself, having drawn 64 walks against 333 strikeouts in 1,357 career plate appearances, and he also brings some power, hitting 15 home runs for the Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros last season. He has somehow managed to hit for a decent batting average most of the time despite the shoddy plate discipline, and oddly enough, the right-handed hitter has been considerably better against right-handed pitching over the course of his career. Regardless, look for Francisco to play more. Would you rather own a 20-homer guy who bats .230 or a 12-homer guy that hits .270? Well, it might depend on team needs, but I'd choose Johnson in this case, because he should deliver the safer batting average, and it's not like he's Juan Pierre in terms of power. He provides some pop. I'd choose Johnson in standard formats, as well as head-to-head and points leagues, even if he doesn't see as much playing time, because batting average killers can be a bigger problem.
As for Freeman, I can't say I would activate him Monday morning for weekly leagues, not before being absolutely certain he would be off the DL, but he's in no danger of losing playing time to Johnson or even Evan Gattis, everyone's favorite power-hitting catcher who came out of nowhere. I stashed Gattis away in a few deep leagues, including my NL-only LABR league drafted the first weekend of March, and I'd look to sell high. As good as Gattis has been, his 0-for-4 performance with two strikeouts Tuesday dropped his batting average to .289. That's still good, but he is not likely to be a top-10 catcher this season, and Brian McCann is going to play. Oh, own Gattis now while he's hitting for power, but be prepared for it to stop. Colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft compared Gattis to former Pittsburgh Pirates slugger Craig Wilson from a decade ago. That's a good parallel. The problem for Gattis, however, is that there is no clear path for playing time on the Braves once McCann returns; he won't see much time at first base or in the outfield.
Box score bits (AL): The Toronto Blue Jays welcomed Brett Lawrie (oblique) back to the lineup Tuesday, and he went hitless in three at-bats, driving in a run on a sacrifice fly. Lawrie played third base, though when Jose Bautista is healthy, Lawrie could see time at second base. ... The Jays had to enjoy Josh Johnson's performance Tuesday; he fanned eight over seven innings, allowing two runs. Don't give up on him yet in 10-team formats. ... More lineup returns: The Seattle Mariners have Michael Morse (finger fracture) back. Morse has six home runs already, and I expect a 35-homer season. ... Aaron Harang made his Mariners debut, allowing three runs and seven hits in five Harang-like innings. Consider him in AL-only formats. ... For everyone concerned about Detroit Tigers DH Victor Martinez, he had three hits Tuesday. Don't panic.
Box score bits (NL): The Los Angeles Dodgers replaced injured right-hander Zack Greinke with veteran lefty Chris Capuano. It didn't go well Tuesday. Capuano allowed four first-inning runs to the San Diego Padres, then left early with a strained calf. Look for Ted Lilly, not the most durable fellow himself, to be next in line. ... The Miami Marlins scored eight runs against the Washington Nationals! Dan Haren was again terrible, permitting seven runs (three earned). Calls for his mass release in standard leagues ran rampant on Twitter, but even if you're adding Tony Cingrani, I'd wait a little longer. ... More on the Marlins: They'll activate Joe Mahoney from the DL on Wednesday. Mahoney isn't Joey Votto or anything, but the 6-foot-6, 245-pound first baseman can hit, and he should get a chance to play. Yes, that means all you Greg Dobbs owners shouldn't be too content. ... Nice work, Barry Zito. The San Francisco Giants lefty started 2013 with two wins and 14 scoreless innings. On Tuesday, he was torched for nine earned runs, permitting a Yuniesky Betancourt grand slam. Zito entered Tuesday the most added pitcher in ESPN leagues. By Wednesday morning, he was not.
 

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Panic over slow-starting arms?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Panic at this stage of year seems all the more absurd on the pitching side, if you consider the sample size: generally 15-20 innings for a starting pitcher.
At the same time, considering the speed at which a pitcher's season can slip away, even the tiniest of samples can't be blindly cast aside. At the very least, a short-term slump should put a pitcher on some sort of "watch list" for his upcoming outings.

Following Wednesday's Hit Parade lead, let's examine this season's slow-starting pitchers, determining whether there's reason to panic with any of them.

i

Johnson

Josh Johnson, Toronto Blue Jays: Any concern about Johnson is rooted in what was effectively a one-start blip. And what was that start? It was a road game against the Detroit Tigers, who have averaged 5.43 runs per game and project to average more than five runs a contest for the season. Take out that game and Johnson is 2-for-2 in quality starts with 14 K's compared to four walks. Include it, as we must, and he's one of the 40 worst starting pitchers as judged by our Player Rater.

Johnson's poor outing appears the outlier, if you consider two things. The first are his velocity patterns. He averaged just 89.3 mph with his fastball in that game, the first time since our pitch-tracking tool had data for his starts (2009) that he averaged less than 91.5 mph, but in his first start of 2013, (April 5) he averaged 92.9 mph and in his third (April 16) he averaged 93.4 mph, both of those in line with his prior career averages.

The other is, if you credit him what was a solid spring -- 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 7.67 K's per walk in 20 innings -- Johnson's April 11 outing stands out further as an aberration. Yes, that disaster counts toward your stats (if you started him), but when it comes to projecting his future success -- all that matters in fantasy planning -- it's far easier to cast it aside. Verdict: No reason to panic.

i

Parker

Jarrod Parker, Oakland Athletics: Selected the No. 45 starting pitcher in the preseason on average, Parker, through three starts, rates the worst at his position per our Player Rater. He has failed to pitch into the sixth inning in any of those three turns, and in none of them was his Game Score even as high as 40 (bearing in mind that 50 is traditionally the equal of a "quality start" by that measure).

Couple that with a poor spring -- 7.45 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and five home runs allowed in 19 1/3 innings -- and Parker's fantasy owners might understandably be panicking.

That said, Parker's problems appear to be rooted in location and luck. His velocity isn't a problem, as he has averaged 92.3 mph with his fastball, spot-on to his 92.4 mph of 2012. But consider that he has eight walks already, he has surrendered a .450 batting average on fastballs, and his BABIP is .438, more than 150 points higher than his .294 number of 2012. Parker is leaving too many pitches over the middle of the plate, and while some might sweat his workload bump of a year ago -- he threw 65 2/3 more innings in 2012 than in 2011 between the majors and minors combined -- I'd argue that what ails him can yet be fixed. Bold call maybe, but … Verdict: No reason to panic.

i

Hamels

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies: Anytime the No. 7 starting pitcher on average from the preseason gets off to the kind of start that Hamels has, fantasy owners get uncomfortable. They also probably should have known this, however. He hasn't had a quality start in his first start of any season since 2008 -- that's right, five straight years without one -- and he had a 4.33 ERA in the month of April from 2009-12 combined.

Hamels' velocity is fine, as he has averaged 91.1 mph with his fastball, exactly the same number he averaged in 2012, and one of his poor outings (April 1) came against the hot-starting Atlanta Braves offense, meaning he should be forgiven for that. He is also one of the most consistent pitchers in the game, as we pointed out in his profile: "… one of five major leaguers with at least 20 quality starts and 180 strikeouts with beneath a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in each of the past three seasons." With that track record in mind, Hamels deserves a lot of patience. Verdict: No reason to panic.

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Gallardo

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers: He's off to a mediocre start, going win- and quality-start-less through three turns with a 6.61 ERA and a mere nine strikeouts, possibly the most frustrating thing to his owners. What Gallardo's owners need reminding, however, is that his K rate had been in a three-year pattern of decline -- slight decline, but a pattern nevertheless -- as he whiffed 25.7 percent of the batters he faced in 2009, 24.9 percent in 2010, 23.9 percent in 2011 and 23.7 percent in 2012. This season, his number in that department is only 11.8 percent.

Gallardo's velocity has also lessened following a similar pattern, as his average fastball went from 92.6 mph in 2011 to 91.7 mph in 2012 to 90.5 mph this year. Ultimately, it appears that even if he straightens himself out, he might no longer be the lock for 200-plus K's that he was in each of the past four seasons. Gallardo's owners need to ask themselves this: Did they pick him as the No. 26 starting pitcher on average in the hopes that he would greatly exceed that ADP -- the old aiming for upside play -- or because they recognized that today's version is just that, a low-end No. 3 (and arguably high-end No. 4) fantasy starter?

In Gallardo's defense, slow starts are nothing new to him. He had a 5.70 ERA in six April starts in 2011 and 6.08 in five in 2012. Both times, he roared back with an outstanding May (2.25 ERA in 2011, 2.89 in 2012). In other words, he warrants a few weeks' more patience, but 180 K's might be the smarter expectation even if he does follow that 2011-12 May resurgence pattern. Verdict: Some panic is warranted.

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Price

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays: This one is simple. If you knew that, in his first three starts of 2012, Price had a 4.20 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 1.22 K's per walk, would you be as worried about what he has done this year? Truth be told, Price's only bad outing in 2013 was his April 7 stinker against the Cleveland Indians (5 IP, 8 ER). His other two both met the quality-start threshold.

Price's most recent outing tells a more compelling tale: six innings, one run, two walks, eight strikeouts. And it came on the road against the Boston Red Sox, who are off to a solid start offensively. Verdict: No reason to panic.

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Haren

Dan Haren, Washington Nationals: Perhaps the most telling fact about Haren's 2013 struggles are that in not one of his three starts has he pitched into the sixth inning. In 2011, he failed to pitch into the sixth only three times all year (34 starts). Heck, even in 2012, Haren lingered into the sixth on all but seven of his 30 outings. This year he's laboring more than ever, and his 2.03 WHIP is disturbingly high for a pitcher whose career number in the category entering the year was 1.18.

Though Haren isn't necessarily a "velocity guy" -- meaning that he's not a pitcher who aims to overpower hitters -- his drop in velocity the past few years is troubling. His average fastball clocked 90.5 mph in 2010, dropped to 89.9 in 2011, then 88.4 mph in 2012, at which point he surrendered an OPS 180 points higher with that pitch alone than in 2011. This season, Haren's fastball has averaged 89.5 mph, forcing him to make more and more adjustments to make up for diminishing stuff. It's a small sample, but … Verdict: It's time to panic.

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Morrow

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays: Ah, another victim of those Tigers. Morrow probably wouldn't even make this list had he not been tasked with a road start against them (April 9), as he had a 3.00 WHIP in that game alone but a 1.25 WHIP in his other two outings, both of which were quality starts.

That's the critical lesson: Consider the context of every start before you race to judgment with your pitchers. Morrow's average fastball velocity by start has gone 95.4-93.1-92.1 mph, his 93.5 season average right in line with his 93 of 2012. He has also afforded no greater quantity of hard contact than he did last year, as 25.5 percent of balls in play against him this year were judged hard contact, down from 26.6 percent in 2012. And that's counting that Tigers start.

If you selected Morrow as a potential breakthrough candidate -- something I advertised and, judging by his No. 28 ADP among starting pitchers, with which you agreed -- you should still consider him one today. Verdict: No reason to panic.

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McCarthy

Brandon McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks: McCarthy has always been a health risk, having never made more than 25 starts in a single year, but thanks to some much-needed improvements he made before the 2011 season, he had transformed into one of the more reliable options on a per-start basis the past two years combined. The problem, though, is that this season he looks a lot closer to the mediocre version of himself in Chicago and Texas than the reliable one during his Oakland days.

According to the Arizona Republic, McCarthy lacks confidence in his changeup, the impact upon his arsenal restoring his fly-ball rate to 45.5 percent, near the levels he displayed in Chicago and Texas. Considering he's a pitcher who needs his secondary pitches to thrive -- his fastball isn't an especially good pitch and has been largely responsible for most of the fly balls he allows (49.1 percent rate since 2009) -- that's disconcerting. As is, McCarthy's owners know they're probably going to need a contingency plan at some point, and this is a good time of year for finding good ones. Verdict: Some panic is warranted.

[h=3]Relief Efforts[/h]
In a week in which two closers landed on the disabled list (Kyuji Fujikawa and Joel Hanrahan), oddly enough, two of the greater headline-makers among relief pitchers were ones not currently on a big league roster.

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Valverde

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Rodriguez

Francisco Rodriguez, whose 294 career saves would trail only Mariano Rivera (612) and Joe Nathan (303) among active players, agreed Wednesday to a minor league contract with his former Milwaukee Brewers. He will report to Maryvale, Ariz., to work with the team's extended spring training program until he's ready to pitch, presumably for a minor league affiliate before being considered for the Brewers' bullpen. The Brewers have 30 days to promote him to the majors. Considering the state of their bullpen, they might do so, as long as he shows he's capable of pitching at a high level.

Meanwhile, Jose Valverde, who was similarly signed to a minor league deal by the Tigers on April 4, pitched a scoreless inning at extended spring camp Thursday, his third appearance since agreeing to terms. Per the team's official website, he'll remain in Florida and pitch for Class A Lakeland on Friday and Saturday and could be promoted to Triple-A Toledo afterward, weather permitting. Like Rodriguez, Valverde also has an opt-out clause, which kicks in May 5.

Perhaps both pitchers' relevance is more of a statement about their respective teams' big league bullpens than their own potential, but considering how wide-open both the Tigers' and Milwaukee Brewers' closer roles are, as well as the gaudy career saves totals for the veterans, it's not unthinkable that either could see meaningful time in the majors. Certainly owners in AL- and NL-only leagues who have the luxury of bench room might speculate on them, but in standard 10-team mixed leagues, we need more evidence that either is pitching at 2012 levels (if not greater) before they would warrant an add.

In Valverde's case, keep this in mind: His average fastball velocity was in a three-year pattern of decline, dropping from 95.6 mph in 2009 to as low as 93.3 in 2012, and his 6.26 K's per nine in 2012 was his worst number in any single year. Both pitchers will be working up to midseason form without the luxury of traditional spring training, so it's fair to question whether they'll even be ready at the conclusion of their 30-day (or in Valverde's case, 32-day) windows.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For starter- or reliever-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column. Previous Ranking ("Prev Rnk") is ESPN's preseason ranking among all pitchers.
<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>Player, Team<CENTER>Pos
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<CENTER>Prev
Rnk</CENTER>
<CENTER></CENTER><CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>Player<CENTER>Pos
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<CENTER>Prev
Rnk</CENTER>
1Clayton Kershaw, LADSP1176Kyle Lohse, MilSP5578
2Justin Verlander, DetSP2277Dan Haren, WshSP5658
3Felix Hernandez, SeaSP3378Ryan Vogelsong, SFSP5774
4Stephen Strasburg, WshSP4479Ryan Dempster, BosSP5887
5David Price, TBSP5580Casey Janssen, TorRP2285
6Cliff Lee, PhiSP6781Kenley Jansen, LADRP2379
7Matt Cain, SFSP7682Roy Halladay, PhiSP5984
8Madison Bumgarner, SFSP8983Grant Balfour, OakRP2483
9Yu Darvish, TexSP91084Josh Beckett, LADSP6088
10Cole Hamels, PhiSP10885Wandy Rodriguez, PitSP6190
11Adam Wainwright, StLSP111286Hyun-Jin Ryu, LADSP6297
12Gio Gonzalez, WshSP121187Greg Holland, KCRP2582
13Craig Kimbrel, AtlRP11588Jose Fernandez, MiaSP6398
14Chris Sale, CWSSP131489Bobby Parnell, NYMRP2689
15CC Sabathia, NYYSP142090Shelby Miller, StLSP64104
16Aroldis Chapman, CinRP21891Hisashi Iwakuma, SeaSP6596
17Mat Latos, CinSP151992Kelvin Herrera, KCRP2792
18R.A. Dickey, TorSP161693Edwin Jackson, ChCSP6686
19Matt Moore, TBSP172194Brandon League, LADRP28100
20Jordan Zimmermann, WshSP182295Jim Henderson, MilRP29101
21Max Scherzer, DetSP192396Jason Hammel, BalSP67107
22Jon Lester, BosSP202497Ross Detwiler, WshSP68115
23Jeff Samardzija, ChCSP213198Wei-Yin Chen, BalSP6995
24James Shields, KCSP222599Matt Harrison, TexSP7081
25Rafael Soriano, WshRP326100Justin Masterson, CleSP71121
26Matt Harvey, NYMSP2344101Phil Hughes, NYYSP7294
27Kris Medlen, AtlRP427102Steve Cishek, MiaRP3099
28Jonathan Papelbon, PhiRP528103Joaquin Benoit, DetRP31117
29Johnny Cueto, CinSP2413104Julio Teheran, AtlSP73102
30Mariano Rivera, NYYRP632105Andy Pettitte, NYYSP74122
31Brandon Morrow, TorSP2530106Mitchell Boggs, StLRP32111
32Jake Peavy, CWSSP2636107Jason Vargas, LAASP75103
33Josh Johnson, TorSP2729108Bud Norris, HouSP76114
34Ian Kennedy, AriSP2833109Jhoulys Chacin, ColSP77125
35Anibal Sanchez, DetSP2941110Matt Garza, ChCSP78110
36Addison Reed, CWSRP740111Brandon McCarthy, AriSP7993
37Jonathon Niese, NYMSP3037112Kyuji Fujikawa, ChCRP3391
38Joe Nathan, TexRP838113Andrew Bailey, BosRP34128
39J.J. Putz, AriRP939114James McDonald, PitSP80105
40Hiroki Kuroda, NYYSP3142115Vinnie Pestano, CleRP35112
41Fernando Rodney, TBRP1035116Chris Tillman, BalSP81113
42Yovani Gallardo, MilSP3234117Brandon Beachy, AtlSP82118
43Doug Fister, DetSP3345118Miguel Gonzalez, BalSP83127
44Homer Bailey, CinSP3446119Dillon Gee, NYMSP84109
45Sergio Romo, SFRP1149120Ryan Cook, OakRP36124
46Brett Anderson, OakSP3543121Chad Billingsley, LADSP85129
47Jim Johnson, BalRP1248122Patrick Corbin, AriSP86130
48Alex Cobb, TBSP3647123Ivan Nova, NYYSP87120
49Mike Minor, AtlSP3752124Jose Veras, HouRP37116
50Jaime Garcia, StLSP3855125Bartolo Colon, OakSP88132
51Derek Holland, TexSP3961126Gavin Floyd, CWSSP89123
52Lance Lynn, StLSP4054127Ervin Santana, KCSP90147
53Paul Maholm, AtlSP4164128A.J. Griffin, OakSP91142
54Clay Buchholz, BosSP4267129David Hernandez, AriRP38131
55A.J. Burnett, PitSP4363130Koji Uehara, BosRP39140
56Alexi Ogando, TexRP1366131Jonathan Broxton, CinRP40108
57Rafael Betancourt, ColRP1459132Ryan Madson, LAARP41135
58Tom Wilhelmsen, SeaRP1562133Ricky Nolasco, MiaSP92139
59Jarrod Parker, OakSP4451134Sergio Santos, TorRP42126
60Jered Weaver, LAASP4557135Tony Cingrani, CinSP93NR
61Jeremy Hellickson, TBSP4660136Drew Storen, WshRP43119
62Tim Lincecum, SFSP4750137Luke Gregerson, SDRP44141
63Huston Street, SDRP1656138Trevor Rosenthal, StLRP45143
64Glen Perkins, MinRP1765139J.A. Happ, TorSP94148
65Tim Hudson, AtlSP4868140Shaun Marcum, NYMSP95134
66Tommy Milone, OakSP4969141Tyler Clippard, WshRP46133
67Wade Miley, AriSP5075142Wade Davis, KCRP47NR
68Jason Grilli, PitRP1873143Jose Quintana, CWSSP96NR
69Ernesto Frieri, LAARP1971144Felix Doubront, BosSP97144
70Marco Estrada, MilSP5176145Jake Westbrook, StLSP98NR
71Zack Greinke, LADSP5217146David Robertson, NYYRP48146
72C.J. Wilson, LAASP5372147Junichi Tazawa, BosRP49NR
73Chris Perez, CleRP2070148Jeremy Guthrie, KCSP99NR
74Joel Hanrahan, BosRP2153149John Axford, MilRP50106
75Trevor Cahill, AriSP5477150Drew Smyly, DetSP100NR

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hacheman@therx.com
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Bullpens: Recycled closers on the radar
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Eric Karabell

Major league managers sure seem to love their closers being old and experienced as opposed to being young and, well, good.

The past few weeks is a clear reminder of this, with recycled closers again being all the rage. A few weeks ago, the Detroit Tigers decided to bring back Jose Valverde, whose 277 career saves are bested by only three active pitchers. Those three are Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez, who himself finally found work Wednesday when the Milwaukee Brewers thought giving him a minor league deal was a good idea. Then there are the noncontending Chicago Cubs and their messy closer situation. Who could solve that mess? Suuuuuuure, let's see what retread right-hander Kevin Gregg can do! Hey, he does have 144 career saves, right? What could go wrong?

<OFFER>Look around baseball and you won't find many young closers being given opportunities, because managers usually seem to choose the pitchers who have done it before. Of course, at some point a pitcher needs to get that first chance to "do it before," but there's a reason the likes of Bruce Rondon, Heath Hembree, Phillippe Aumont, A.J. Ramos, Rex Brothers, Carter Capps and Tanner Scheppers won't get that chance anytime soon, and it's because the old guys rule. It's the third week of the season, and already Valverde, Rodriguez and Gregg are back in play. Hard to believe!</OFFER>

I've written and spoken far too much about Valverde already, though I'll remind you that I still predict he gets the call within the next two weeks and ultimately leads the Tigers in saves, so do with that information what you will. But let's talk Brewers: Struggling right-hander John Axford seems mighty buried in the seventh inning at this point, while right-hander Jim Henderson (30 years old) has a pair of wins and saves and has been scored on in only one outing. So why the need for K-Rod? He was hardly effective in 2012, but his contract dictates the organization has 30 days to call him up or he could ruin another team's bullpen and clubhouse chemistry.

I saw from the safety of my sofa Rodriguez pitch in the World Baseball Classic last month, and he certainly didn't look special. He's not! He hasn't been for years! But he owns 294 career saves, so as with Valverde, whether he's a good pitcher anymore is kind of irrelevant.

With closers, it's all about opportunity; Rodriguez was OK in 2010, and even in his record-breaking 2008, when he saved 62 games and nearly won Cy Young Award honors (finishing third), he was barely a top-10 American League reliever using Wins Above Replacement. Still, here he is. While I maintain some hope Axford regains the role with Milwaukee, the fact is if Henderson keeps pitching well, he'll likely keep the job. I've changed my mind on this and believe Henderson saves 25 games, Axford fewer than 10 and Rodriguez opts out of his contract in mid-May and joins either the Astros or Vladimir Guerrero's Long Island Ducks in the (independent) Atlantic League.


With the Cubs, I expect manager Dale Sveum to change his story on a nearly daily basis, and so far he hasn't disappointed. One day Carlos Marmol is safe, then he's banished to the seventh inning, far from committee consideration, then he's back in play, then the team thinks pinata Gregg can help them after he was cut by the Los Angeles Dodgers two weeks ago. Gregg was on the Baltimore Orioles last season, and let's just say the overachieving of his fellow bullpen mates didn't rub off on him. Gregg's two-year ERA and WHIP with Baltimore was 4.62 and 1.66, respectively. If I'm running the Cubs, I'd let a youngster get a chance to pitch rather than Gregg and fellow retread Kameron Loe, punted by the Seattle Mariners a week ago. So who closes in Chicago?

I maintain that Marmol will save more than 15 games in 2013. While it won't be pretty, it's inevitable. Kyuji Fujikawa is on the disabled list, and I'm not assuming he's back this month. I assumed in mid-March that Jason Motte would be fine because the St. Louis Cardinals told us so. He won't be fine, not until April 2014. Right-hander Shawn Camp boasts a career 4.38 ERA and has a 2.79 WHIP this season. Veteran James Russell has done nothing wrong, allowing one hit and zero walks in 4 1/3 scoreless innings, but Sveum claims -- and this could change, of course -- that as the lone lefty in the bullpen he can't close. It's probably going to be Gregg closing in the next week. That's simply amazing. But when he messes it up, Marmol will get another chance. Hmm, I think I'm going to just avoid all Cubs relievers this season.

So Valverde, Rodriguez and Gregg are potentially relevant again. What's next, the Houston Astros bringing back right-hander Francisco Cordero? He was, after all, on the squad last season.

Bullpen notes: Don't be surprised if Boston Red Sox right-hander Andrew Bailey keeps the closer job even when Joel Hanrahan comes off the DL. Hanrahan's hamstring ailment will heal; his control is another issue. Of course, Bailey won't stay healthy either, and I see both gentlemen saving 15-20 games. … I love when announcers cite Jim Johnson's fine start as proof that his 2012 wasn't a fluke. It's seven innings. That said, I don't see why he can't save 40 games, albeit with higher peripherals than last season. … Don't look at Greg Holland's season numbers; they mean little. Setup man Kelvin Herrera was cruising along until he allowed three home runs in an inning this week, probably ending the Royals' multicloser situation for now. Holland got safer. … I think it's 50-50 that Edward Mujica gets the next Cardinals save. Mitchell Boggs remains in play as well. Sadly, Trevor Rosenthal doesn't appear close to closing, though I think he would be terrific in the role. Own his skills, and hope for the role. … Those in deeper formats should look into San Diego Padres right-handers Dale Thayer and Luke Gregerson. Flip a coin on who gets chosen to close (probably Thayer, like in 2012) when Huston Street succumbs to another DL stint. Street has already allowed three home runs, his velocity is down again, and he's throwing many more changeups, which can be a problem without an effective heater.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Closer Chart

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

[h=4]Fantasy bullpen organization chart (last updated April 18)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 30 major-league teams' bullpens in terms of relievers' proximity to the closer role, not their overall fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Closer" is either that team's officially designated closer, or the pitcher most likely to get the team's next save chance. "Next in line" is the pitcher next-most likely to take over if something happens to the closer, or the one who might get any save chances on the closer's nights off. "Stealth" is a dark-horse candidate for saves, for those digging deep. These pitchers typically don't pose an imminent threat to the closer's job security, but might, given time. "Looming" is a pitcher who has his sights set on the closer role but whose circumstances might currently prevent him from doing so. Generally speaking, usual closers who are on hurt and/or on the disabled list (designated as "Inj." or "DL"), bereavement list ("BL") or restricted list ("RL"), closer-worthy pitchers currently working out of the rotation, specialists (especially lefties) or "next in line" options presently in the minors fit the description.
Team <CENTER>Closer </CENTER><CENTER>Next in line </CENTER><CENTER>Stealth </CENTER><CENTER>Looming </CENTER>
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J.J. Putz David Hernandez Brad Ziegler Heath Bell
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Craig Kimbrel Jordan Walden Eric O'Flaherty Luis Avilan
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Jim Johnson Pedro Strop Darren O'Day Tommy Hunter
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Andrew Bailey Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Joel Hanrahan (DL)
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Co-closers: Shawn Camp, James Russell Carlos Marmol Kyuji Fujikawa (DL)
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Addison Reed Matt Thornton Nate Jones Jesse Crain
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Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton Sean Marshall J.J. Hoover
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Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Joe Smith Bryan Shaw
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Rafael Betancourt Rex Brothers Wilton Lopez Matt Belisle
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Joaquin Benoit Phil Coke Octavio Dotel Jose Valverde (Minors)
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Jose Veras Wesley Wright Hector Ambriz Rhiner Cruz
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Greg Holland Kelvin Herrera Aaron Crow Tim Collins
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Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Sean Burnett Ryan Madson (DL)
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Brandon League Kenley Jansen Ronald Belisario Matt Guerrier
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Steve Cishek Jon Rauch Mike Dunn A.J. Ramos
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Jim Henderson Mike Gonzalez Burke Badenhop John Axford
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Glen Perkins Jared Burton Josh Roenicke Casey Fien
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Bobby Parnell Brandon Lyon Josh Edgin Frank Francisco (DL)
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Mariano Rivera David Robertson Joba Chamberlain Shawn Kelley
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Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle Chris Resop
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Jonathan Papelbon Mike Adams Antonio Bastardo Phillippe Aumont
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Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Jared Hughes Tony Watson
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Mitchell Boggs Trevor Rosenthal Edward Mujica Jason Motte (DL)
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Huston Street Luke Gregerson Dale Thayer Andrew Cashner
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Sergio Romo Santiago Casilla Jeremy Affeldt Javier Lopez
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Tom Wilhelmsen Carter Capps Charlie Furbush Stephen Pryor (DL)
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Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Jake McGee Kyle Farnsworth
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Joe Nathan Jason Frasor Robbie Ross Tanner Scheppers
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Casey Janssen Sergio Santos Steve Delabar Esmil Rogers
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Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard Craig Stammen

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hacheman@therx.com
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Bits: Thoughts on Headley, Padres offense
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Eric Karabell

The San Diego Padres organization as a whole had a pretty decent Wednesday, as third baseman Chase Headley came off the disabled list after recovering from a small fracture in his left thumb, and the team blasted three home runs off the usually invincible Clayton Kershaw. Headley hit third in Wednesday's surprising 7-2 win at Dodger Stadium, though the news of his return was muted a bit by center fielder Cameron Maybin taking his place on the shelf with a right wrist impingement.
Maybin was already among the most-dropped players in ESPN standard formats, which makes sense since he was hitting a paltry .091 (three hits in 33 at-bats), with nary an attempted stolen base. The reason for his DL stint might explain his slow start, but then again, maybe we've already seen his best. Maybin's ride to fantasy relevance seemed to take a while and involved three organizations. Perhaps he peaked in 2011 when he stole 40 bases and scored 82 runs. Last season he slipped back to fantasy free agent status when he hit .243 and ran less. Maybin clearly has tools; he's fast enough to steal many bases, defends well and seemed a good candidate to finally reach double digits in home runs with the adjustment of the fences at Petco Park, but now there seems to be little reason to believe in him, even when his wrist is healthy. Only 26, Maybin is a career .248 hitter and hasn't developed the power once expected of him.

<OFFER>But let's focus on the good: Headley is back. He singled and walked in four at-bats Wednesday against tough customer Kershaw, and just about every night will be easier than that. I'll take the under on the switch-hitter slugging another 31 home runs and knocking in 115 runs, just because the performance was so shocking last season and it's hard to believe he won't regress some. Plus, he hit 19 homers in the final eight weeks, which is ridiculous, considering Headley hit 27 home runs total in the three seasons prior to 2012. I think he can steal 20 bases and hit closer to .300, but I'll go with a 23-homer, 85-RBI, 17-steal season. It's still going to make him, I believe, one of the top five third basemen from here on out.


Chris Denorfia led off in Maybin's center field spot against the lefty, but the Padres have some outfield decisions to make against right-handed pitching when Carlos Quentin is done serving his eight-game suspension early next week. I'd like to see 6-foot-6 slugger Kyle Blanks get 400 at-bats. It has never happened before, mainly due to injury but also odd personnel decisions. Blanks was called up earlier this week, homered off Kershaw and is hitting .455 in four games. Blanks has always hit for power and showed modest plate discipline, and he has proven himself in the minors. He's not a center fielder, but useful Will Venable can platoon with Denorfia there. Play Blanks and Quentin regularly in the corner outfield spots -- I think each is capable of 20-plus home runs.

The other aspect of the Headley activation is it moves sweet-swinging Jedd Gyorko over to second base. He's hitting only .236 -- buy low! -- and he has already played 12 games at third base, earning dual eligibility. I think Gyorko can look statistically a bit like Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, with 14 or so home runs and a .280 batting average. Hey, isn't that enough? And Gyorko could draw 60 walks, for those of you in OBP formats.

Box score bits (NL): Pirates right-hander A.J. Burnett took a no-hitter into the seventh inning Wednesday, finally allowing a double to St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Carlos Beltran. When Burnett is on, he can shut down even top lineups. He fanned eight, and so far has a 2.63 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 24 innings. In each of his four starts, he has struck out eight or more. Call me crazy, but everything Burnett did in 2012 I think it happens again. … Shelby Miller didn't exactly struggle for the Cardinals, allowing two runs over six innings. In a year, we're probably raving about Miller like we currently are for New York Mets phenom Matt Harvey. … Every time I see Washington Nationals lefty Ross Detwiler pitch, I wonder how he thrives. He doesn't throw hard or miss many bats. But after being the latest to shut down the Miami Marlins -- well, except Dan Haren -- his ERA sits at 0.90. I could see his ERA ending up around 3.00. No, really. … Cincinnati Reds shortstop Zack Cozart hit his fourth home run Wednesday, and had three hits. And still he's hitting .228 with a .237 OBP. Don't be fooled. What he did last season -- hitting .246 but with 15 home runs and four steals -- is about what you'll get.



Box score bits (AL): I watched Kansas City Royals right-hander Wade Davis in his first outing from the press box in Philadelphia, and his location was a mess. The Phillies tagged him for nine hits and four runs in four innings. Since then, he hasn't allowed a run. On Wednesday, he shut down the powerful Atlanta Braves (seven shutout innings). Add Davis and activate him even with his next start being against the Detroit Tigers next week. … The 12-4 Oakland Athletics continue to mash, getting 11 hits and seven runs Wednesday, but it's worth noting they've beaten the Houston Astros six times (45 runs in those games). This lineup does have depth, though. Seth Smith hit three singles Wednesday and is hitting .447. Struggling Josh Reddick hit a two-run double. And while I remain skeptical that shortstop Jed Lowrie can get 400 at-bats, since it hasn't happened in his first five seasons, he's a top-10 middle infielder right now with that .373 batting average and power. … I added Chicago White Sox lefty Jose Quintana to a few teams after his seven shutout innings of one-hit ball in Cleveland last Friday. On Wednesday night, he didn't allow the Toronto Blue Jays any runs over 6 2/3 innings, striking out seven. This is not a big K guy, but he's 24, so perhaps there's growth ahead.

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